O Brasil é um protagonista na oferta global de alimentos, serviços ambientais e conservação da biodiversidade. O país é o terceiro maior produtor agropecuário e o maior exportador líquido do mundo (FAO, 2016).1 Políticas adequadas nos setores de serviços financeiros podem contribuir para modernizar e intensificar a agricultura, levando a um gerenciamento mais eficiente dos recursos naturais. Melhorias nas políticas de crédito rural podem aumentar a produção do país e torná-la mais sustentável.

A abundância de terras já desmatadas no Brasil oferece uma oportunidade de expandir a produção agropecuária sem derrubar vegetação nativa. Se o país buscar alcançar seu potencial agrícola em terras já disponíveis – somente por meio da conversão de pastagens em áreas de cultivo e do aumento da produtividade – a produção total poderá quase duplicar sem destruição de florestas (Antonaccio et al., 2018). Para alcançar esse potencial, é necessário destinar recursos relevantes para investimento e custeio.

Desde a década de 1960 o crédito rural tem sido a principal política agropecuária do Brasil. O montante de crédito no ano agrícola 2019/20 representa aproximadamente 30% da produção agropecuária total do país em 2019 (que foi de R$ 631 bilhões de acordo com o MAPA, 2020).2 Essa relevante política tem grande potencial para alinhar a política agrícola com os objetivos de sustentabilidade.

Estudos recentes mostram que o Brasil pode aumentar a produção agrícola entre 79% e 105% e a produção de carne em 27% sem desmatamento (Assunção e Bragança, 2019). No entanto, para obter ganhos significativos na produtividade agropecuária, os produtores devem investir recursos consideráveis para modernizar suas operações, comprando equipamentos agrícolas e gastando mais em fertilizantes. Outro estudo recente constatou que o crédito rural alivia as restrições dos produtores, aumentando a produtividade da mão de obra e da terra, levando à intensificação da produção e à redução da pressão por desmatamento (Assunção, Fernandes, Mikio e Souza, 2020). Os ganhos de produtividade e as melhorias no uso da terra são especialmente relevantes para o crédito direcionado aos pequenos agricultores.

Subsídios governamentais devem incentivar a provisão de bens públicos. Ao alinhar o apoio governamental ao crédito rural com objetivos ambientais, reforça-se a relação entre agricultura e proteção florestal, justificando, do ponto de vista econômico, o direcionamento de recursos públicos para o setor agropecuário.

A produção agropecuária e os ecossistemas naturais estão unidos em um equilíbrio delicado, que deve ser mantido. Além do papel das florestas na manutenção da biodiversidade, elas são um fator determinante do clima, especialmente dos padrões de chuva que são tão importantes para a agricultura brasileira.

A proteção ambiental do Brasil pode impulsionar o sucesso econômico do país. À medida que aumentam as preocupações nacionais e internacionais com a conservação das florestas, mudanças climáticas e riscos de catástrofes, cresce a pressão para o país preservar seus recursos ambientais. Nas negociações de acordos comerciais internacionais, essa já é uma questão prioritária, afetando diretamente as exportações brasileiras.

Nesse relatório, pesquisadores do Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-Rio) apresentam uma avaliação aprofundada das políticas brasileiras de crédito rural e discutem seus progressos recentes e atuais desafios. A análise se baseia em anos de pesquisa e discussões com tomadores de decisões, setor privado e pesquisadores acadêmicos. Esse relatório é organizado em cinco partes.

Chapter 1 discusses the relationship among agricultural production, deforestation, and the need for effective finance. Land use in Brazil has become more e!cient over time. Despite more recent trends, Brazil has made considerable e”orts to reduce deforestation. After peaking at more than 27,000 km2, there was an 80%3 decrease in deforestation rates in the Amazon between 2004 and 2012 at the same time that the GDP of the agricultural sector of the region increased by 12.4%.4 Recent research shows that the intensification of Brazilian agriculture is linked to the conversion of low-productivity pastureland to cropland and an associated reduction in deforestation pressures. Therefore, modernization has allowed the country to increase its agricultural production while decreasing the area expansion that leads to deforestation. If public policies and practices are further improved and better articulated to provide farmers with appropriate financial tools, these trends of intensification can be reinforced.

Chapter 2 examines the structure of the rural credit system, looking into the fragmentation of financing rules and the credit distribution channels. A multitude of rural credit funding sources and programs create a complex rural credit system for producers to navigate. There is a wide range of funding sources and programs, each with separate terms and conditions for providing credit to producers. The numbers change almost every year due to the creation and elimination of credit lines, but for the 2020/21 agricultural year, there are still 16 funding sources and 12 programs (Banco Central do Brasil, 2020a). With banks and other financial institutions unevenly distributed throughout the country, this crowded field of funding sources and programs hinders producers in making financial decisions. The fragmentation of rural credit rules by geographical location, farm size, and farm revenues creates additional artificial variation in the availability of funds and loan conditions, which generates distortions and inefficiencies. The analysis brings relevant insight for public policy. A simplification of programs and funding sources can improve the efficiency of the rural credit system. Increasing transparency and reducing political interference in public policy can reduce distortions and increase efficiency.

Also, the reduction of excessive restrictions on the use of funds would allow producers to make a better allocation of resources. Besides that, expanding the rural credit planning horizon can make financing conditions more predictable for producers, helping with production decisions. Finally, encouraging the expansion of private sector participation in rural credit can stimulate competition and generate innovation in the rural financial sector.

Chapter 3 presents the impact of rural credit on the real economy, land use, and deforestation. It discusses the results of Assunção, Fernandes, Mikio and Souza (2020), a CPI/PUC-Rio paper in partnership with the Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil) that show evidence that an increase in rural credit lending leads to improvements in both land productivity and labor productivity. In terms of land use, an increase in rural credit leads to an expansion of crop area and a decrease in pasture area, with a positive impact on forested areas (reduced deforestation). Overall, the evidence suggests that credit restrictions modify production decisions and lead to inefficiencies in production. Rural credit fosters productive advances, places a ceiling on agricultural area expansion, and gives priority to productivity gains. When the analysis is disaggregated by credit lines, types of producer, and types of credit, it becomes clear that these impacts of greater agriculture intensification and improved land use are more profoundly associated with credit directed to small farmers.

Chapter 4 examines Brazil’s experience with credit and sustainability, including the ABC Plan and the alignment of credit with environmental protection. This chapter discusses the integration of public goods and rural credit subsidies. First, it provides an overview of the strengths and implementation difficulties of the Agricultural Sector Plan for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for the Consolidation of a Low-Carbon Economy (Plano Setorial de Mitigação e de Adaptação às Mudanças Climáticas para a Consolidação de uma Economia de Baixa Emissão de Carbono na Agricultura – ABC Plan). It also discusses potential routes for its improvement. Second, the report shows that the idea of using credit instruments to foster the protection of natural assets is not new to Brazil. In 2008, Resolution 3,545 from the National Monetary Council (Conselho Monetário Nacional – CMN) conditioned rural credit lending in municipalities in the Amazon biome on compliance with environmental rules and proven legitimacy of property titles. Assunção et al. (2019) calculate this resolution led to a 15% reduction in deforestation during the 2008-2011 period, suggesting that rural credit can be an effective tool for promoting conservation in Brazil. Two other CMN’s resolutions (4,106/2012 and 4,226/2013) established an increase in credit limit related to the rural properties’ environmental conditions. These are innovative and effective examples of combining credit provision with environmental features.

Chapter 5 discusses the important steps the Brazilian banking system is taking towards a better alignment between finance and sustainable practices. The 2020/21 Agricultural Plan (Plano Safra) included an increase of up to 10% in the working capital credit limit for producers who submit a validated Rural Environmental Registry (Cadastro Ambiental Rural – CAR), which is a first move for compliance with the Forest Code. Another important measure was to allow financing for the acquisition of Environmental Reserve Quotas (Cotas de Reserva Ambiental – CRA). In September 2020, the Central Bank of Brazil launched the Sustainability dimension of its Agenda BC#. Two initiatives should be highlighted: 1) the announcement of the “Green Bureau”, which will be associated with the rural credit information system and contain information on farmers’ sustainable practices; 2) the intention to boost incentives to move rural credit in a green direction. In this line, the Central Bank of Brazil signaled the possibility of continuing to increase contracting limits for rural credit operations that meet sustainability characteristics by up to 20% (Banco Central, 2020b). Potential next steps to advance this agenda are discussed in this chapter.

The Brazilian government has the opportunity to leverage current policies and ensure they become more efficient and meet relevant objectives. Improved access to rural credit enables farmers, especially small ones, to increase agricultural productivity, relieving the pressures driving deforestation. The current tight fiscal regime and declining interest rates imply that subsidies tend to decrease at the aggregate level. Therefore, it is important to target resources for maximizing their impact on Brazilian agriculture sector and meet socially desirable objectives.