Green Guarantee Group Flagship Report 2026: From Recommendations to Implementation
Mobilizing private capital for climate and development is increasingly important for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), where investment needs are growing while public budgets and fiscal space remain constrained. Climate and sustainable development investment needs are growing as the impacts and economic costs of climate change intensify. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic pressures, and shifting policy environments are making investment decisions more complex, particularly in EMDEs, where investment is most needed. By transferring defined risks, guarantees enable viable investments to access finance on suitable terms.
Green guarantees are key to mobilizing climate finance at scale
While public budgets and fiscal space remain constrained, climate and sustainable development investment needs are rising. Mobilizing private capital is therefore critical to meeting investment needs in EMDEs. Guarantees have strong mobilization potential, with increasing pertinence for climate finance in an era of decreased ODA and constrained public budgets. The OECD’s Private Finance Mobilisation Report 2026 identifies guarantees as the primary leveraging mechanism between 2021 and 2024, crowding in an annual average of USD 22.4 billion, or almost 30% of total private finance mobilized.
Innovation is also accelerating across the guarantee ecosystem. Multilateral development banks, development finance institutions, export credit agencies, and specialized providers are developing new products and delivery models across project and sovereign financing. National and regional institutions are also expanding, while local currency, portfolio and multi-guarantor structures are being tested.
Tracking progress toward a stronger green guarantee ecosystem
Building on the Green Guarantee Group’s (GGG) inaugural 2025 report, the 2026 edition examines how the market is evolving and what is needed to move guarantees from growing availability to deployment at scale.
This report measures progress against these four priorities for scaling climate-aligned guarantees in EMDEs:
- Clarifying the supervisory treatment of guarantees
- Expanding local-currency finance and managing FX risk
- Improving data transparency and knowledge sharing
- Strengthening national and regional guarantee capacity
Alongside this assessment, the report combines guarantee market trend tracking, an assessment of progress on the GGG’s recommendations, and the GGG’s strategy and priority actions for the years ahead.
Trends in the green guarantee marketplace
Although the guarantee market is expanding across sectors and geographies, limited data makes it difficult to consistently trace the full chain from product availability and deployment to private capital mobilization, performance, and development impact.
The report examines where progress is being made and where barriers to greater deployment remain. Key findings highlight the need for greater regulatory clarity, stronger domestic financial markets and FX risk-management mechanisms, broader national and regional guarantee capacity, improved data transparency, and technical assistance for local institutions and supervisors.
Together, these findings reinforce the need to translate innovation into broader implementation, impact, and scale. Further progress will depend not only on developing new instruments, but on addressing the regulatory, market, data, and institutional constraints that determine whether guarantees can be effectively deployed and replicated in markets where they provide genuine additionality.
These findings point to an important shift for the guarantee ecosystem: from expanding instrument availability to ensuring effective deployment at scale and directing it toward markets where risk mitigation can generate the greatest additional investment and impact.
Moving from availability to impact: Next phase for the guarantees market
Scaling green guarantees will require more than creating new instruments. The next phase is about ensuring that existing and new guarantees can be deployed effectively, supported by the regulatory, institutional, financial, and technical conditions needed to mobilize private capital at scale.
Explore the GGG 2026 Flagship Report or download the Executive Summary for insights on how the market is evolving, how far the GGG’s recommendations have advanced, and the priority actions for the years ahead.
