{"id":79775,"date":"2025-11-11T11:28:23","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T11:28:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/?post_type=cpi_publications&p=79775"},"modified":"2026-05-03T08:45:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-03T08:45:37","slug":"bottom-up-climate-finance-needs","status":"publish","type":"cpi_publications","link":"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/id\/publication\/bottom-up-climate-finance-needs\/","title":{"rendered":"Bottom-up Climate Finance Needs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Since 2021, CPI has worked to support a collective understanding of the climate finance needed to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.\u202f<\/strong>Accurately assessing the size of the global climate finance gap can enable decision-makers to mobilize finance effectively, quickly, and to where it is most needed.\u202f<\/strong>While top-down modelling gives a comprehensive view of\u202fglobal finance needs<\/a> to align to a 1.5o<\/sup>C pathway, needs estimates can also be developed at the country level, based on national priorities. \u202f <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Referred to as\u202fbottom-up needs<\/strong>, this country-level approach is critical for understanding nations\u2019 climate finance ambitions and required level of international support to reach their mitigation and adaptation objectives. Bottom-up needs outline domestic (unconditional) and international (conditional) capital required to achieve national climate goals, as stated in official documents such as\u202fNationally Determined Contributions<\/a>\u202f(NDCs).\u202f\u202f <\/p>\n\n\n\n

CPI\u2019s bottom-up climate finance needs are derived from the collection and standardization of climate finance needs data from 167 NDCs and provide a comprehensive overview of climate finance needs as presented by countries.\u202fAlongside our assessment of top-down needs and our wider tracking and analysis of\u202fclimate finance flows<\/a>, this analysis can help identify the largest climate finance gaps at the country level, track progress against climate targets, and better\u202finform decision-makers and financial institutions on how to\u202fincrease the speed, scale, and quality of climate finance.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This work can also more accurately inform discussions about international climate finance targets, such as the Baku to Bel\u00e9m Roadmap<\/a>, and future NDC updates to improve and align the scoping of needs with the ambition of international support. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

HOW MUCH DO COUNTRIES NEED TO ACHIEVE THEIR NDC GOALS?\u202f<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Of the 194 UNFCCC parties that have ratified the Paris Agreement and subsequently submitted NDCs,\u202f114 include explicit estimates of finance needed to reach their NDC goals in their most recent submission.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our updated compilation of bottom-up needs shows that for these 114 parties, an estimated average of USD 473 billion is required per year through 2035 to meet their climate goals. Of the total estimated needs, 70% (USD 331 billion per year) will be required for mitigation and 21% (USD 100 billion per year) for adaptation and resilience. The remaining 9% (USD 42 billion per year) will be needed for cross-cutting initiatives that target both mitigation and adaptation objectives. Discussed further below, it should be noted that bottom-up needs are dwarfed by those estimated using global, 1.5\u00b0C-aligned models (top-down needs), which CPI estimates at USD 7.5 trillion per year between now and 2030, and over USD 8.8 trillion per year from 2031 to 2050.<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Average yearly bottom-up climate finance needs until 2035 by climate objective\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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