{"id":73831,"date":"2024-10-17T12:39:16","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T12:39:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/?post_type=cpi_publications&p=73831"},"modified":"2026-05-25T10:09:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T10:09:14","slug":"cutting-down-the-hydropower-plants-how-the-amazon-deforestation-is-jeopardizing-electricity-generation-in-brazil","status":"publish","type":"cpi_publications","link":"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/id\/publication\/cutting-down-the-hydropower-plants-how-the-amazon-deforestation-is-jeopardizing-electricity-generation-in-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"Cutting Down the (Hydropower) Plants: How the Amazon Deforestation is Jeopardizing Electricity Generation in Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the global climate agenda and the Brazilian economy. It has a large carbon storage capacity and provides essential ecosystem services, including the regulation of rainfall patterns on a continental scale. The loss of forest vegetation negatively affects local biodiversity, the country\u2019s economic development, and global climate stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researchers from Climate Policy Initiative\/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI\/PUC-RIO) analyzed the impact of changes in rainfall patterns caused by deforestation on the country\u2019s electricity generation. This study shows that deforestation in the Amazon negatively affects the country\u2019s electricity generation capacity and revenue, even affecting hydropower plants (HPPs) located thousands of kilometers away from the Amazon biome.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By analyzing four of the most significant HPPs in the country, this publication explores the effects of deforestation on electricity generation both inside and outside of the Amazon region. The first case study, focusing on the Teles Pires HPP, located in the Amazon region, identifies that deforestation has reduced monthly generation by 2.5% to 10%, resulting in an annual revenue  loss of USD 21 million for the hydroelectric plant.[1]<\/sup><\/a> The second case study investigates the impact of deforestation beyond the Amazon region. When analyzing the three HPPs in the Paran\u00e1 Basin (located thousands of kilometers from the Amazon), researchers identified a generation loss of around 3%. For HPP Salto, for example, the electricity generation loss corresponds to a potential 10% loss of annual profit for the controlling company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hydroelectricity has historically been Brazil\u2019s main source of electricity generation, accounting for 48.6% of installed capacity and 60.2% of total generation in 2023.[2]<\/sup><\/a> Hydroelectric power is a renewable source of energy that is economically competitive and brings operational flexibility to the electricity system. However, it is vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns and hydrological regimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This study aims to highlight the connection between the Amazon rainforest and energy generation, demonstrating that the impacts of deforestation reach beyond the deforested area and affect national hydroelectric generation. This analysis hones in on the resilience of Brazil\u2019s electricity mix, which is already facing water scarcity and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Although this study focuses on two case studies, it raises the hypothesis that the reliability and availability of hydroelectric generation can be impacted by deforestation. In addition, the study identifies regions in the Amazon that contribute to the hydroelectric generation of the analyzed HPPs, as well as the land categories present in the areas of influence for each plant. By identifying the most relevant areas to hydroelectric generation, this analysis shows the priority areas for implementing conservation and restoration policies, which can guide the design of effective financial mechanisms and the targeting of public and private resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results highlight the need to define strategies that reconcile conservation and restoration policies with those for energy generation, ensuring greater institutional integration between energy and environmental issues. Especially since a large part of Brazil’s power generation system is exposed to this mechanism\u201417 of the 20 hydroelectric plants with the highest capacity are in the path of the flying rivers<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forest and Energy Generation: Quantifying the Flying Rivers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The phenomenon of flying rivers is defined in the literature as moisture-laden air currents that, from the Amazon, run east of the Andes in a north-south direction, carrying large amounts of moisture.[3]<\/a>,[4]<\/a>,[5]<\/a>,[6]<\/a><\/sup> Tropical forests recharge these air currents with moisture, producing a significant impact on rainfall patterns, which influences the water supply for energy production. The nexus between deforestation and energy generation loss, defined by Ara\u00fajo, is illustrated in Figure 1.[7]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1. <\/strong>Nexus between Deforestation and Energy Generation Loss<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source: <\/strong>CPI\/PUC-RIO, 2024<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When deforestation occurs, the air currents that pass through deforested areas become less humid. The diminished humidity of these air currents reduces the incidence of rain along their routes. As a result, the water volume of rivers along the paths of the air currents is also reduced, which ultimately limits the hydroelectric generation capacity of the HPPs that they supply. The loss of forest vegetation, therefore, directly impacts the productivity of HPPs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2 shows how air currents coming from the Atlantic Ocean cross the Amazon and pass through regions where a substantial number of Brazil\u2019s HPPs are located, which are essential for supplying the national electricity system. Of the country’s 20 hydroelectric plants with the highest capacity, 17 are exposed to the flying river mechanism.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2.<\/strong> Brazilian Hydroelectric Power Plants and the Trajectory of the Winds<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source:<\/strong> CPI\/PUC-RIO (2024) based on data from Copernicus-ERA5 (2023), MAPBIOMAS (2023), and ANEEL (2000)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the importance of hydroelectricity in Brazil\u2019s electricity mix and the regions affected by the deforestation-energy generation nexus, a change in rainfall patterns due to deforestation could have a substantial impact on the country\u2019s energy generation.[8]<\/a>,[9]<\/a><\/sup> This could lead to increased energy insecurity and raise the price of energy. It also has the potential to aggravate environmental issues if a drop in hydroelectric generation capacity leads to a an increase of fossil fuel-based thermoelectricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Effects of Deforestation at HPP Teles Pires<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The first case study analyzes the impacts on the Teles Pires HPP, located on the Teles Pires River, which runs between the states of Mato Grosso and Par\u00e1. The HPP was chosen because of its importance to the country\u2019s energy generation. This plant began operating in 2015 and currently has an installed capacity of 1,820 MW, enough to supply a population of 13.5 million people.[10]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To estimate the influence of the Amazon forest on Teles Pires HPP\u2019s power generation, this study took as a basis the approximately 690,000 km\u00b2 of deforested land that has accumulated in the Amazon biome between 1985 and 2020. The method applied identifies the forest regions that impact the rainfall regime in the areas of influence for the power plant and then generates a hypothetical scenario without deforestation. This no-deforestation scenario is used to estimate the volume of rainfall that would have occurred in the areas of influence for Teles Pires HPP during the same period.[11]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without deforestation in the region between 1985 and 2020, the plant would have had the capacity to generate, on average, between 2.5% and 10% more electricity than was observed.[12]<\/sup><\/a> The lost generation potential corresponds to the supply of electricity for at least 330,000 people. When considering the price of selling energy over the period (Differences Settlement Price), this loss in energy generation is equivalent to an average loss of USD 21 million per year for the plant. Considering that the loss of revenue is due to forest loss over the period, this figure may indicate the plant\u2019s propensity to invest in the conservation of forest areas that are relevant to maintaining the flow of rivers that feed it.[13]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3 identifies a significant area that influences the power generation of Teles Pires HPP. This area has been partly deforested and partly conserved. The various trajectories of the tracked currents cross approximately 177.5 km\u00b2 of deforested areas, indicating the importance of adopting restoration policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The estimated revenue loss of USD 21 million demonstrates that the area of Amazon forest that influences electricity generation at Teles Pires HPP has a monetary value, in perpetuity, of an average of USD 2,382\/km\u00b2. However, when focusing on the 5% area of forest most relevant to the plant\u2019s power generation, the value of conservation rises to USD 6,000\/km\u00b2.[14]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3.<\/strong> Impact on Teles Pires HPP Generation<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source: <\/strong>CPI\/PUC-RIO with data from Copernicus-ERA5 (2023), MAPBIOMAS (2023), SICAR (2023), SIGEF\/INCRA (2023) and FUNAI (2023), 2024<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mapping the land tenure categories of the areas that affect the generation potential of the Teles Pires HPP is crucial for targeting policies to combat deforestation and developing effective mechanisms and instruments for conserving and restoring these areas. Indigenous land is the main land tenure category of the 25% of forest area that most influences electricity generation at the Teles Pires HPP, corresponding to 41.6% of that area. The next-largest land category is undesignated forest, accounting for 18.5% (Figure 4).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 4. <\/strong>Distribution of Land Categories in Teles Pires HPP<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source:<\/strong> CPI\/PUC-RIO (2024) with data from Copernicus-ERA5 (2023), MAPBIOMAS (2023), SICAR (2023), SIGEF\/INCRA (2023), and FUNAI (2023)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Effects of Deforestation on HPPs in the Paran\u00e1 Basin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The second case study applies the methodology adopted for Teles Pires HPP to the three hydroelectric plants in the Paran\u00e1 Basin (Salto, Salto do Rio Verdinho, and S\u00e3o Domingos HPPs), highlighting the impact of Amazon deforestation beyond the biome.[15]<\/sup><\/a> These plants were selected based on two criteria: the relevance of the region to the country\u2019s electricity supply and the fact that they are run-of-river plants\u2014i.e., they do not have significant water storage capacity\u2014which allows the direct effect of the river\u2019s flow to be observed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As shown in Figure 1, the three plants are located kilometers away from the Amazon biome, a relevant aspect for analyzing the extent of the effects of deforestation on power generation. The Salto and Salto do Rio Verdinho HPPs are located on the Verde River, in the state of Goi\u00e1s, and have an installed capacity of 116 MW and 93 MW, respectively.[16]<\/a>,[17]<\/a><\/sup> The S\u00e3o Domingos HPP, also located on the Verde River, is in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and has an installed capacity of 48 MW.[18]<\/a>,[19]<\/a><\/sup> The same methodology was adopted to assess the impact of deforestation on these plants as for Teles Pires HPP. As found in the first case study, the energy loss is a consequence of reduced river volume where the plants are located, due to the lower incidence of rainfall in the area resulting from the effects of deforestation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 5.<\/strong> Accumulated Losses in Energy Generation and Associated Revenue for Salto, Salto do Rio Verdinho, and S\u00e3o Domingos HPPs, 2002-2022<\/p>\n\n\n

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