[{"id":79775,"date":"2026-11-10T15:40:03","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T15:40:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/?post_type=cpi_publications&#038;p=79775"},"modified":"2026-11-10T17:47:30","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T17:47:30","slug":"bottom-up-climate-finance-needs","status":"publish","type":"cpi_publications","link":"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/id\/publication\/bottom-up-climate-finance-needs\/","title":{"rendered":"Bottom-up Climate Finance Needs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Since 2021, CPI has worked to support a collective understanding of the climate finance needed to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.\u202f<\/strong>Accurately assessing the size of the global climate finance gap can enable decision-makers to mobilize finance effectively, quickly, and to where it is most needed.<strong>\u202f<\/strong>While top-down modelling gives a comprehensive view of\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/top-down-climate-finance-needs\/#:~:text=Our%20compilation%20of%20top-down%20needs%20assessments%20shows%20that,%20in%20an\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">global finance needs<\/a> to align to a 1.5<sup>o<\/sup>C pathway, needs estimates can also be developed at the country level, based on national priorities. \u202f\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Referred to as\u202f<strong>bottom-up needs<\/strong>, this country-level approach is critical for understanding nations\u2019 climate finance ambitions and required level of international support to reach their mitigation and adaptation objectives. Bottom-up needs outline domestic (unconditional) and international (conditional) capital required to achieve national climate goals, as stated in official documents such as\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/process-and-meetings\/the-paris-agreement\/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nationally Determined Contributions<\/a>\u202f(NDCs) and <a href=\"https:\/\/napcentral.org\/submitted-NAPs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Adaptation Plans<\/a> (NAPs).\u202f\u202f\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CPI\u2019s bottom-up climate finance needs are derived from the collection and standardization of climate finance needs data from 169 NDCs and provide a comprehensive overview of climate finance needs as presented by countries.\u202fThough NDCs remain the primary source of CPI\u2019s bottom-up needs, CPI\u2019s newly updated data also compiles adaptation finance needs from over 90 National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) as a supplementary source. Alongside our assessment of top-down needs and our wider tracking and analysis of\u202f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/global-landscape-of-climate-finance-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">climate finance flows<\/a>, this analysis can help identify the largest climate finance gaps at the country level, track progress against climate targets, and better\u202finform decision-makers and financial institutions on how to\u202fincrease the speed, scale, and quality of climate finance in alignment with countries\u2019 sectoral priorities.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>To explore the data on bottom-up needs in more detail, visit our<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/dataviz\/bottom-up-climate-finance-needs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>bottom-up needs interactive dashboard<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong>\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Climate finance needs in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>HOW MUCH DO COUNTRIES NEED TO ACHIEVE THEIR NDC GOALS?<\/strong><strong>\u202f<\/strong><strong>\u202f<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of the 194 UNFCCC parties that have ratified the Paris Agreement and subsequently submitted NDCs, 123 include explicit estimates of finance needed in their NDCs.\u202f\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our updated compilation of bottom-up needs shows that for these 123 parties, a cumulative investment of USD 5.7 trillion is required from 2025-2035 to meet their climate goals. Of the total estimated needs for 2025-2035, 74% (USD 4.2 trillion) will be required for mitigation and 20% (USD 1.2 trillion) for adaptation and resilience. The remaining 6% (USD 347 billion) will be needed for cross-cutting initiatives that target both mitigation and adaptation objectives (dual benefits). It should be noted that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/top-down-climate-finance-needs\/#:~:text=Our%20compilation%20of%20top-down%20needs%20assessments%20shows%20that,%20in%20an\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bottom-up needs are dwarfed by those estimated using global, 1.5\u00b0C-aligned models (top-down needs)<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/30798908?2127209\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/30798908\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>WHERE SHOULD FINANCE BE DIRECTED?\u202f<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bottom-up needs estimated in NDCs are largely concentrated in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), reflecting both the higher climate vulnerability of these regions, as well as the nature of the Paris Agreement, which encourages non-Annex\u202fI\u202fcountries to indicate the level of international support they require to meet their NDC targets.\u202f\u202fMore than 80% of recorded bottom-up needs (USD 4.7 trillion) are concentrated in EMDEs.\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notably, sub-Saharan Africa has the largest reported bottom-up needs, accounting for 29% (USD 1.7 trillion) of total needs from 2025-2035. East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia also have a significant share of total bottom-up needs, each requiring nearly USD 1 trillion between 2025-2035.These regions are some of the most vulnerable to climate change, despite their minimal contributions to historical global GHG emissions.\u202f\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-hierarchy\" data-src=\"visualisation\/30799220?2127209\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/30799220\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"hierarchy visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, it should be noted that regional comparison of bottom-up needs is partly limited by data availability, as not all countries cost their finance needs in their NDCs.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>WHAT LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE NEEDED IN EMDEs?\u202f\u202f<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many EMDEs will require significant international support to meet their stated climate objectives, known as\u202f<strong>conditional climate finance needs<\/strong>. For EMDEs, 32% of stated climate finance needs in NDCs are conditional on international support, and just 12% are\u202f<strong>unconditional<\/strong>, or expected to come from domestic public sources. For the remaining 56% of needs for EMDEs, the NDCs did not specify if the finance would be provided domestically or obtained externally. However, given the scale of climate finance needs compared to limited domestic resources in many countries, it is highly likely that significant international support will be required.\u202f\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The figure below highlights the portion of stated needs that are contingent on international support across regions&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/30800678?2127209\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/30800678\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cUnspecified\u201d here refers to needs that were not classified as unconditional in the NDC<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Climate finance needs in National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>WHERE DO NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS FIT IN?<\/strong> &nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the first time, CPI\u2019s bottom-up needs database also includes adaptation finance needs from National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), the national planning instruments countries use to identify medium- and long-term adaptation needs. Of the 91 NAPs reviewed, 58 quantify adaptation finance needs, totalling USD 947 billion over 2025-2035<sup>2<\/sup>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NAPs complement, rather than replace, the NDC-based estimates above. The two documents differ in scope, timeframe and level of detail, and are often prepared at different times and through separate national processes, and therefore their needs estimates may not be directly comparable. NDCs remain the primary source of bottom-up needs in CPI\u2019s approach, given their near-universal coverage across Parties to the Paris Agreement and their coverage of mitigation and, in many cases, adaptation needs.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, where costed, NAPs can sometimes offer a more detailed view on adaptation needs. As shown below, NDCs and NAPs are equally likely to quantify adaptation needs, with around two-thirds of each doing so, but NAPs more often cost these needs at the project or action level (40% of NAPs reviewed, compared with 32% of NDCs).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/30825896?2127209\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/30825896\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of the 58 countries with costed NAPs, 48 also quantify needs in their NDCs, with around two-thirds costed at the project- or action-level. For nine countries, including Argentina and the United Kingdom, NAPs are the only source of quantified needs for 2025\u20132035 in our database, covering nearly USD 300 billion not captured by NDCs. Because some NDCs draw on the same costings as their NAPs, the two are presented separately and should not be added together.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It should be noted that adaptation needs are inherently difficult to cost. Needs estimates depend on the level of future warming, what level of resilience is considered sufficient, and when investments are made. Countries use widely varying approaches to estimate them, often listing planned activities rather than assessing what would be needed to address projected climate risks. NDC- and NAP-based figures should therefore be read as what countries have quantified to date, not as a measure of total adaptation needs, which are likely to be substantially higher.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>To view NDC- and NAP-based needs for each country, visit our<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/dataviz\/bottom-up-climate-finance-needs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>bottom-up needs interactive dashboard.<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Limitations in bottom-up Climate finance needs<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>WHAT DO BOTTOM-UP NEEDS TELL US?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the limitations of current NDCs and NAPs, the bottom-up needs estimates provide insights both on the level of countries\u2019 climate ambition and on their stated capacity for achieving these objectives. With only 12% of EMDE needs expected to be met from domestic sources, and most of the remainder either conditional on international support or unspecified,\u202f<strong>bottom-up needs estimates illustrate that continued, significant international support is needed to help countries meet their climate targets and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.<\/strong><strong>\u202f<\/strong>\u202f\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Additionally, bottom-up needs estimates reveal that<\/strong><strong>\u202f<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.unep.org\/resources\/emissions-gap-report-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>current country-level ambition is insufficient to keep global temperature rises within 1.5\u00b0C<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong><strong>\u202f<\/strong>While some countries estimate their national climate finance needs using predictive models aligned to a 1.5\u00b0C pathway, in most cases, needs stated in NDCs and NAPs are derived from a list of costed mitigation and adaptation measures or projects countries aim to implement. Therefore, the scale and granularity of costed climate finance needs varies widely across NDCs. \u202f\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Data limitations and variations in methodologies used to derive bottom-up estimates within NDCs result in data gaps, lack of granularity, and inconsistencies across country-level estimates. Where available, NAPs can help fill some of these information gaps for adaptation, but coverage remains incomplete. Broadly, data limitations result in the severe underestimation of needs at the country level.\u202f<strong>Therefore,<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/leveraging-ndc-updates-to-bridge-the-climate-finance-gap\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>significant effort is needed to improve, align, and standardize methodologies for establishing climate targets and estimating the costs of their implementation within NDCs<\/strong><\/a> <strong>and other national planning documents<\/strong>,<strong>\u202f<\/strong>alongside enhanced support for countries to more accurately and comprehensively estimate their climate finance needs. Strong NDCs can play a role in sending\u202finvestment signals to investors and develop into actional roadmaps for climate finance. CPI conducted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/from-commitments-to-capital-are-new-ndcs-built-to-mobilize-climate-investment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">an analysis examining the strength of investment signals in the first 18 NDCs submitted by non-Annex I parties to the UNFCCC by mid-2025<\/a>, and found that opportunities exist for strengthened investment signals in forthcoming NDCs.<strong>\u202f<\/strong>\u202f&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span class=\"button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Assessing-Bottom-Up-Climate-Finance.pdf\">Download the Methodology<\/a><\/span> <span class=\"button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/dataviz\/bottom-up-climate-finance-needs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Go to the dashboard<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CPI&#8217;s bottom-up climate finance needs analysis can help identify the largest gaps at the country level, track progress against climate targets, and better\u202finform decision-makers and financial institutions on how to\u202fincrease the speed, scale, and quality of climate finance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":248,"featured_media":79801,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"programs":[1761],"regions":[392],"topics":[1883,1199],"collaborations":[],"class_list":["post-79775","cpi_publications","type-cpi_publications","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","programs-climate-finance-tracking","regions-global","topics-climate-finance-needs-roadmaps","topics-finance"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bottom-up Climate Finance 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Just Energy Transition Fund"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indonesia\u2019s net zero goal depends on a major build-out of renewable power. Reaching 74% renewable electricity by 2060 will <strong>require around USD 30.3 billion in investment every year<\/strong>. Yet clean power <strong>investment averaged only USD 1.2 billion a year<\/strong> between 2019 and 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The gap is widest in rural and island communities<\/strong>, where small projects struggle to attract private investors, tariffs must stay affordable for low-income households, and public budgets are limited. With the national 100-GW Solar PV Acceleration Program under way and off-grid solar expected to add 4.36 GWp of new demand, the <strong>opportunity to bring clean energy to these communities is significant, but so is the need for financing that lasts<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This discussion paper proposes a <strong>Just Energy Transition Fund (JETF) to help close that gap<\/strong>. Building on the principles of the Just Energy Transition Partnership, the fund would pool <strong>public, private, and philanthropic capital to deliver affordable renewable electricity to rural communities and turn it into lasting local benefits<\/strong>, through three focus areas:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Viability gap funding<\/strong> to lower the capital cost of renewable energy projects and keep electricity tariffs affordable<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Upskilling and reskilling funding<\/strong> to build the local technical capacity needed to operate and maintain renewable energy systems<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Productive use of energy funding<\/strong> to power village enterprises, create green jobs, and raise local incomes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Written as a starting point for dialogue with the Government of Indonesia and stakeholders, the paper offers practical recommendations for establishing a fund that reaches the communities most in need. It examines <strong>potential funding sources, governance arrangements, financing instruments, and enabling conditions<\/strong>, while <strong>outlining a phased approach to its development<\/strong>, from initial capitalization and pilot deployment to scaling up and institutionalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span class=\"button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Just-Energy-Transition-Fund.pdf\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Just-Energy-Transition-Fund.pdf\">Read the Full Paper<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This paper offers practical recommendations to the Government of Indonesia on establishing a Just Energy Transition Fund that can pool public, private, and philanthropic capital to deliver affordable renewable electricity to rural communities and turn it into lasting local benefits.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":218,"featured_media":127280,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"programs":[1836],"regions":[156],"topics":[1772,264],"collaborations":[],"class_list":["post-127276","cpi_publications","type-cpi_publications","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","programs-just-energy-transition","regions-indonesia","topics-just-transition","topics-renewable-energy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Indonesia Just Energy Transition Fund - CPI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/indonesia-just-energy-transition-fund\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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Amazon in Focus: How to Redirect Public Resources to Support the Region\u2019s Sustainable Development"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Introduction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Brazilian Amazon rainforest holds one of the world\u2019s largest terrestrial carbon stocks and helps regulate the country\u2019s water cycle through the flying rivers. These environmental services sustain agriculture and livestock, hydroelectric generation, river transportation, and urban water supply across Brazil. Given its environmental, economic, and social importance, the Amazon rainforest is, above all, a strategic national asset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet the 28 million inhabitants of the Brazilian Amazon live with indicators of income, poverty, labor informality, and urban infrastructure that lag behind those of the rest of the country. The region faces critical development challenges: its economy remains stagnant and is characterized by low productivity, while its agricultural model is still carbon-intensive and often dependent on deforestation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is commonly argued that this situation stems from the absence of government presence in the region. From an economic standpoint, this explanation falls short. The federal government has a significant presence in the region through public banks, constitutional funds, subsidized credit, tax incentives, and major infrastructure investments. The issue, therefore, is not a lack of government action, but how that action is directed and how efficiently resources are used. A significant share of these resources is still directed toward frontier expansion and low-productivity activities that generate short-term returns. Moreover, government-led development initiatives often fail to strengthen territorial governance, leaving land tenure issues unresolved across the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This report builds on this premise and analyzes specific credit and tax expenditure instruments under the purview of the Ministry of Finance: the Constitutional Fund for Financing the North (FNO), operated by the Bank of the Amazon (Basa); the Manaus Free Trade Zone (ZFM); and the Financial Compensation for the Exploitation of Mineral Resources (CFEM).<a href=\"#_ftn1\" id=\"_ftnref1\"><sup>[1]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Brazil Needs to Rethink its Strategy for the Amazon<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Brazilian Amazon, home to most of the largest tropical rainforest on the planet, is a strategic asset for Brazil because of its unparalleled wealth of natural resources. The region plays a key role in climate regulation: it stores one of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks on the planet and helps regulate the continental water cycle through the so-called flying rivers (Nobre, 2014). The forest provides essential environmental services (climate, water, and biodiversity) that support agriculture and livestock, hydroelectric power generation, river transportation, and urban water supply in Brazil (Nobre, 2014; Pinto and Arbache, 2025a).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the region faces enormous social and economic challenges. Its 28 million inhabitants live with health, education, sanitation, and public safety indicators that are worse than those in the rest of the country (Wilm <em>et al.<\/em>, 2026; Soares <em>et al.<\/em>, 2025). The regional economy is stagnant and has low productivity, and its agricultural production system remains carbon-intensive. Moreover, about 29% of the region\u2019s territory has undefined land tenure status, which weakens environmental protection, undermines property rights, and discourages sound investment (Brito <em>et al.<\/em>, 2021; Ver\u00edssimo <em>et al.<\/em>, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key issue is not a lack of public policies or the absence of the federal government in the region. The State is present through rural credit, constitutional funds, tax incentives, royalties from the mining, oil and gas sectors, and major infrastructure projects. The problem is that a significant share of these instruments remains geared toward frontier expansion (such as new roads that drive deforestation and social conflict), low-productivity activities, and short-term spending\u2014without generating governance, land tenure security, quality jobs, and social progress on the same scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-background wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"background-color:#b8d8b9\">Whenever the Brazilian government expands the settlement frontier in the Amazon by building roads, deforestation increases. Road construction sharply increases the supply of cheap land, making it more profitable to clear the forest than to invest in sustainable land use. Land tenure insecurity exacerbates this pattern, as it prevents land from being used as collateral for credit and turns land occupation into a race for property rights and a source of conflict (Schneider, 1995).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The result is a familiar combination: environmental crisis, sluggish economic growth, rising violence, and high social costs. In 2024, the Brazilian Amazon accounted for just over 9% of Brazil\u2019s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but for about 44% of the country\u2019s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly from deforestation and fires (Seeg, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet each of the factors behind the region\u2019s crisis also holds the basis for a structural solution\u2014the so-called \u201cAmazon paradox\u201d (Ver\u00edssimo, Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, and Barreto, 2022). First, the Amazon has vast areas of cleared and underused land that could support more productive agriculture and livestock, as well as large areas for restoration and other forest-based activities. Second, the remaining forest is increasingly valuable for the environmental services it provides to the climate and to biodiversity. Finally, the region\u2019s predominantly young population can sustain a cycle of growth if there are significant improvements in education and technical training, digital connectivity, public safety, and economic opportunities (Ver\u00edssimo, Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, and Barreto, 2022; Turra <em>et al.<\/em>, 2022; Cruz and Portella, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Forest as National Infrastructure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beyond its environmental value, the Amazon rainforest functions as Brazil\u2019s natural infrastructure. Evapotranspiration from the forest recycles moisture and feeds the flying rivers, which supply rainfall to agricultural regions, hydroelectric reservoirs, urban water supply systems, and waterways (Nobre, 2014; Pinto and Arbache, 2025a).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These services provide direct economic benefits. Hydroelectric plants account for more than half of Brazil\u2019s electricity generation (EPE, 2025). Brazilian agriculture also depends heavily on rainfall, as only 13% of agricultural land is irrigated (Pinto and Arbache, 2025a). As the Amazon rainforest is cleared, it loses its capacity to recycle moisture, increasing risks to power generation, food production, river transportation, and water supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The flying rivers pass over regions that are home to 17 of Brazil\u2019s 20 largest hydroelectric plants (Figure 1). The Itaipu and Belo Monte plants alone lose approximately 3,700 GWh of potential generation each year, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of the state of Rond\u00f4nia (Pinto and Arbache, 2025b). In agriculture, the National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM) estimated losses of R$186 billion in crop production and R$64 billion in livestock production due to water scarcity between 2013 and 2022 (CNM, 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Deforestation has also become a trade risk. The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requires proof that beef, soy, palm oil, cocoa, coffee, rubber, and timber were not produced on land deforested after December 31, 2020 (European Union, 2023). The regulation provides for risk-based differentiation: low-risk countries will benefit from simplified procedures, while high-risk countries will be subject to enhanced controls (Barreto <em>et al.,<\/em> 2025). Estimates from Chain Reaction Research indicate that the regulation could reduce the profits of large Brazilian meatpackers, which could also face fines of up to 4% of their sales to the European Union (Chain Reaction Research, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In June 2026, the Tianjin Meat Association (China) formalized the purchase of at least 50,000 metric tons of Brazilian beef certified as deforestation-free. Participating companies have begun auditing imports with a Chinese certification body and will be able to market the meat with specific labeling. According to the Chinese press, the product is expected to reach premium supermarkets, restaurants, and digital platforms despite an estimated price premium of 5% to 10% (Xinhua News Agency, 2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mining adds another dimension to the Amazon\u2019s national importance, as the region holds strategic mineral reserves such as iron ore, bauxite, copper, and nickel. However, weak territorial governance and slow progress in land tenure regularization have limited the region\u2019s ability to turn this potential into development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the gold sector, industrial mining has been losing ground to illegal small-scale mining, with serious social and environmental consequences. In this context, gold mining ceases to be a productive activity and instead fuels illegal economies (Soares, Pereira, and Pucci, 2021; Soares <em>et al.,<\/em> 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Figure 1. <\/strong>The Path of the Flying Rivers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"1033\" class=\"wp-image-126933\" style=\"width: 800px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F1-AMZ-scaled.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F1-AMZ-scaled.png 1983w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F1-AMZ-232x300.png 232w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F1-AMZ-793x1024.png 793w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F1-AMZ-1190x1536.png 1190w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F1-AMZ-1586x2048.png 1586w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Source:<\/strong> CPI\/PUC-Rio with data from Copernicus-ERA5 (2023), ONS (2023), MapBiomas (2023), CCEE (2023), ANA (2020), Nobre (2014), Pinto and Arbache (2025a, 2025b), EPE (2025), CNM (2023)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Social Progress Gap<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2023, per capita GDP in the region was R$39,000, compared with R$56,000 in the rest of Brazil (Santos <em>et al.<\/em>, 2026). In 2025, average monthly household income per capita in the region was only R$1,416, compared with R$2,069 nationally. That same year, 37% of the Amazon\u2019s population lived below the poverty line, compared with 23% in Brazil as a whole, and labor informality reached 47%, compared with 39% in the rest of the country (IBGE, 2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Young people account for a significant part of this challenge. In 2019, 57% of people age 18 to 24 and 40% of those age 25 to 29 were not employed (Alfenas <em>et al.<\/em>, 2020; Ver\u00edssimo, Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, and Barreto, 2022). This matters because the Amazon has greater potential to benefit from a demographic dividend than other Brazilian regions. Without adequate professional training and job opportunities, however, this demographic advantage risks becoming a source of social pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vocational education is still incipient in the region. In 2020, enrollment in vocational and technical education was only 2% in the Brazilian Amazon, compared with 4% in the rest of the country and 42% in member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (Cruz and Portella, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Urban infrastructure is limited. Only 13% of households have broadband access, compared with 53% in the rest of the country. Waste collection reaches 69% of households, compared with 81% in other states (IBGE, 2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taken together, these indicators show that the region\u2019s settlement and development process has failed to create favorable conditions for its population. The public policies and resources allocated to the region have not closed the gap with the rest of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Table 1.<\/strong> Social Indicators for the Brazilian Amazon<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Brazilian Amazon<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Rest of Brazil<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Year<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Source<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Real GDP per capita<\/td><td>R$ 39 mil<\/td><td>R$ 56 mil<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>IBGE (2025)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Household income Average per capita<\/td><td>R$ 1,416<\/td><td>R$ 2,069<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>IBGE (2026)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poverty rate (%)<\/td><td>37<\/td><td>23<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>IBGE (2026)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Informal employment rate (%)<\/td><td>47<\/td><td>39<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>IBGE (2026)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Probability of transition from formal employment to informal work (%)<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>2012\u20132020<\/td><td>Alfenas <em>et al<\/em>. (2020)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Discouragement rate (%)<\/td><td>5<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>Alfenas <em>et al<\/em>. (2020)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Youth not employed,<br>18 to 24 anos (%)<\/td><td>57<\/td><td>48<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>Alfenas <em>et al<\/em>. (2020)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Youth not employed,<br>25 to 29 anos (%)<\/td><td>40<\/td><td>30<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>Alfenas <em>et al<\/em>. (2020)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Access to sewer system (%)<\/td><td>20<\/td><td>62<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>IBGE (2025)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Homes with plastered walls (%)<\/td><td>54<\/td><td>82<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>IBGE (2025)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants<\/td><td>18 \u2192 28<\/td><td>27 \u2192 17<\/td><td>2000\u20132023<\/td><td>Ministry of Health (2025) and EstimaPop, IBGE (2025)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Life expectancy<\/td><td>75.6 years<\/td><td>76.8 years<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>IBGE (2025)<\/td><\/tr><\/thead><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Building Opportunity Where People Already Live<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Brazilian Amazon is also an urban region. About two-thirds of its population lives in cities, which account for 83% of jobs (Chein and Proc\u00f3pio, 2022). A regional development strategy must therefore treat cities as hubs of productivity, employment, and services, not merely as support centers for the forest or the countryside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first step is to improve basic urban infrastructure. Sanitation, reliable energy, digital connectivity, local mobility, public safety, and facilities for education, culture, sports, and recreation lower costs for businesses and workers. These improvements help retain young people and create the conditions for higher-value-added activities in health care, education, information technology, tourism, gastronomy, the creative economy, and urban logistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Digital connectivity deserves priority because it expands opportunities without repeating the historical pattern of physical frontier expansion. In a region where new roads can lead to land grabbing, deforestation, and unregulated settlement, the internet provides access to education, public services, markets, and employment with less pressure on the forest (Ara\u00fajo <em>et al<\/em>., 2022). Broadband, distance learning, telemedicine, and the digitization of public services can reduce isolation and connect urban and rural populations to new opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vocational training is essential, particularly for young people. The Amazon still has a significant demographic window of opportunity, but this potential will only translate into growth if training is aligned with regional demand (Turra <em>et al.<\/em>, 2022). Technical courses and short-term programs should prioritize entrepreneurship and employment opportunities in services, technology, the creative economy, health and well-being, bioeconomy, and urban services (Cruz and Portella, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Agriculture and Livestock: Producing More on Less Land<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The development of the Brazilian Amazon no longer requires clearing forests. Since 1975, the region has lost approximately 86 million hectares of forest, an area roughly the size of Spain and Italy combined. Over this period, cumulative deforestation rose from 0.5% of the original forest area in 1975 to 21% in 2025 (INPE, 2025). Because much of this land is degraded, abandoned, or underused, the opportunity now lies in making better use of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cattle ranching illustrates the scale of potential productivity gains. Amazon 2030 studies indicate that approximately 25 million hectares would be enough to meet projected beef demand in 2030. With higher productivity, up to 37 million hectares could be freed up for forest restoration, agroforestry systems, planted forests, and other land use (Barreto, Pereira, and Rocha, 2024; Barreto<em> et al.,<\/em> 2025). The challenge is to realign incentives: credit, technical assistance, pasture recovery, and traceability should support producing more on less land rather than expanding into new forest areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forest bioeconomy also remains far below its potential. Forest-compatible products, such as cocoa, black pepper, Brazil nuts, a\u00e7a\u00ed, fish, and tropical fruits, have an international market worth more than US$288 billion a year. Although Brazil is home to about one-third of the world\u2019s tropical forests, the Brazilian Amazon captures less than 0.3% of this market (Coslovsky, 2026). Other tropical countries, such as Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Vietnam, and Uganda, hold significant shares of these markets despite facing similar or even greater structural constraints (Coslovsky, 2021). The problem, therefore, lies mainly in the absence of a comprehensive agenda to promote these products, focused on operational efficiency, innovation, productivity, trade promotion, and strong pre-competitive arrangements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forest restoration broadens this productive agenda. The Brazilian Amazon has approximately 15 million hectares of deforested or abandoned land that is not used for crop or livestock. Of this total, 7.2 million hectares have been regenerating naturally for more than six years (Pinto <em>et<\/em> <em>al.<\/em>, 2021). More broadly, approximately 37 million hectares of deforested land could be allocated to forest restoration and other production systems, such as agroforestry and reforestation, without affecting regional agricultural output (Ver\u00edssimo <em>et al<\/em>., 2022). At a carbon price above US$25 per metric ton of CO\u2082 removed through natural regeneration, forest restoration would become more profitable than extensive cattle ranching across the entire region, with the potential to generate an estimated US$ 320 billion in gross revenue over the next 30 years (Assun\u00e7\u00e3o and Scheinkman, 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brazil has already shown that it can reduce deforestation without sacrificing economic growth in the Brazilian Amazon. Between 2004 and 2012, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by more than 80%, while the region\u2019s agricultural GDP more than doubled (Figure 2) (Gandour, 2021). More recently, Brazil has again cut deforestation, from 13,038 square kilometers in 2022 to 5,731 square kilometers in 2025 (INPE, 2026). This track record shows that environmental protection and agricultural growth are not mutually exclusive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Figure 2.<\/strong> Deforestation Rate and Agricultural GDP, 2002\u20132012<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"372\" class=\"wp-image-126937\" style=\"width: 800px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F2.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F2.png 2127w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F2-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F2-1024x477.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F2-1536x715.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/F2-2048x953.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Source: <\/strong>Amazon 2030 with data from Gandour (2021)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Security: Restoring State Control over the Territory<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The business environment in the Brazilian Amazon has been undermined by rising violence and organized crime. Between 2000 and 2024, the homicide rate in the region rose from 18 to 28 per 100,000 inhabitants (peaking at 43 in 2018). Over the same period, the rate in the rest of Brazil fell from 27 to 17 per 100,000 inhabitants (Ministry of Health, 2025). By 2019, the regional rate was already 70% higher than in the rest of the country (Soares <em>et al.,<\/em> 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The dynamics of violence in the Brazilian Amazon have changed. Until the mid-2000s, the main risk factor was illegal logging. Land grabbing and illegal gold mining then gained prominence (Figure 3). Since 2018, however, drug trafficking routes and the presence of criminal factions have reshaped violence in the region (Soares, Pereira, and Pucci, 2025). Between 1999 and 2023, an estimated 18,367 homicides could have been prevented in small municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon had illegal logging, land grabbing, illegal gold mining, and criminal factions not been present (Pereira, Pucci, and Soares, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rivers in the Brazilian Amazon have become major routes for international cocaine trafficking, connecting the Andean countries (Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru) to the city of Manaus and, from there, to domestic and international markets (Pereira, Pucci, and Soares, 2025). The number of Amazonian municipalities with a criminal faction presence rose from 178 in 2023 to 344 in 2025. Between 2018 and 2023, criminal factions accounted for 56% of homicides linked to these risk factors, up from 29% before 2018 (FBSP, 2023, 2024, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Land tenure insecurity exacerbates this dynamic. About 29% of the Brazilian Amazon, roughly 144 million hectares, still has undefined land tenure. Of this total, about 57 million hectares are undesignated public forests, an area the size of France (Brito, 2022; Brito<em> et al.<\/em>, 2021). Nearly 300,000 occupied landholdings on federal public lands lack regularized tenure. Yet current legislation would allow 88% of the titling applications filed with the National Institute for Colonization and Agrarian Reform (Incra) to be processed quickly, without loosening rules in ways that would reward land grabbing (Brito, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Without land-use planning, attracting high-quality investment to the region remains extremely difficult. Land tenure regularization for legitimate claimants, the allocation of undesignated public forests, and public land concessions for restoration all depend on coordination among Incra, the Chico Mendes Institute for Biodiversity Conservation (ICMBio), the Brazilian Forest Service (SFB), the National Foundation for Indigenous Peoples (Funai), and state land agencies (Brito, 2022; Brito <em>et al.<\/em>, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Figure 3.<\/strong> Exposure to Risk Factors in the Brazilian Amazon<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"539\" class=\"wp-image-126941\" style=\"width: 800px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f3.png\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f3.png 2106w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f3-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f3-1024x690.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f3-1536x1036.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/f3-2048x1381.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Source:<\/strong> Santos et al. (2026)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rethinking Economic Incentives<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is often argued that the Brazilian Amazon suffers from a chronic absence of government presence. This interpretation is incomplete. The federal government is present in the region through public banks, constitutional funds, subsidized credit, tax incentives, and major infrastructure projects. The problem is that government actions and investments have often been poorly suited to the realities of the Brazilian Amazon. In many cases, public resources continue to finance land occupation patterns and investments that disregard the region\u2019s specific characteristics and do little to boost productivity, innovation, land tenure security, and social progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rural credit is the first area in need of reform. Public credit should prioritize higher agricultural and livestock productivity, the restoration of degraded land, and forest-based activities, rather than the extensive land-use model that drives deforestation. The same logic applies to the forest-compatible products. Financial resources currently concentrated in conventional supply chains need to be redirected toward agroforestry systems, bioeconomy, and forest restoration (Mour\u00e3o <em>et al.<\/em>, 2024; Barreto, Pereira, and Rocha, 2024; Barreto<em> et al.<\/em>, 2025; Coslovsky, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Constitutional Fund for Financing the North (FNO), operated by the Bank of the Amazon (Basa), is a key instrument for promoting productive activities in the region.<a href=\"#_ftn2\" id=\"_ftnref2\"><sup>[2]<\/sup><\/a> Between 2020 and 2025, the total value of contracted loans exceeded R$ 70 billion. However, because most establishments now qualify as priority beneficiaries, the FNO has lost its capacity to target credit. One recommended adjustment is to concentrate resources on smaller producers and on areas facing greater credit constraints (Pereira and Souza, 2022). Furthermore, credit lines designed to promote more sustainable activities, such as FNO-ABC (low-carbon agriculture), still account for only a small share of total lending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Manaus Free Trade Zone (ZFM) needs to be more closely integrated with the regional economy.<a href=\"#_ftn3\" id=\"_ftnref3\"><sup>[3]<\/sup><\/a> With the ZFM\u2019s tax benefits now extended through 2073, it has become more urgent to link incentives to the creation of skilled jobs, workforce training, infrastructure, bioeconomy, technology, and specialized services. International experience with special economic zones shows that incentives are most effective when tied to clear performance requirements for productivity, local integration, and workforce training (Schutze <em>et al.,<\/em> 2021; Assun\u00e7\u00e3o<em> et al.<\/em>, 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mining royalties should finance permanent assets. The Financial Compensation for the Exploitation of Mineral Resources (CFEM)<a href=\"#_ftn4\" id=\"_ftnref4\"><sup>[4]<\/sup><\/a> is revenue derived from a finite and volatile resource. Under current arrangements, mining municipalities are vulnerable to the mineral price cycle, and royalties tend to crowd out their own-source revenue (Ara\u00fajo and Bragan\u00e7a, 2022). In 2025, total CFEM revenue in the Brazilian Amazon reached approximately R$ 3.4 billion, more than 92% of it in the state of Par\u00e1. To make the CFEM more effective, the rules governing its use should be tightened, with mechanisms to smooth revenue fluctuations and to increase investment in infrastructure, health, education, and long-term planning. Above all, CFEM resources should prioritize diversifying the local economy so that municipalities do not suffer economic and social collapse when mineral resources are depleted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Table 2.<\/strong> Public Finance Instruments: key challenges and recommendations<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Instrument<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Evidence<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Problem<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Recommendation<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Rural Credit<\/strong><\/td><td>The 2024\/25 Agricultural Plan (Plano Safra) disbursed R$ 475.5 billion in rural credit , with R$ 16.7 billion in subsidies.<br>Between 2020 and 2024, 36% of subsidized rural credit was allocated to properties where deforestation occurred after 2009. At the Amazon Bank, more than 70% of subsidized credit is associated with properties where deforestation has occurred (Mour\u00e3o et al., 2024).<\/td><td>Part of the public subsidy goes to properties with recurring deforestation, both before and after the credit is granted.<\/td><td>Adjust instruments and stakeholder incentives so that rural credit promotes the productive restoration of already-converted areas. Block subsidized credit to producers who deforest.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Livestock Credit<\/strong><\/td><td>Credit specifically for livestock farming requires special attention because of its potential for either negative or positive impacts.<\/td><td>&nbsp;Credit still finances extensive, low-productivity ranching and frontier expansion rather than the intensification of already-cleared pastures.<\/td><td>Make credit conditional on the adoption of technical assistance, the restoration of degraded areas, and traceability. Concentrate credit in consolidated areas and within a radius of up to 80 km from meatpacking plants.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Forest-Compatible Products<\/strong><\/td><td>Rural credit virtually ignores forest-compatible supply chains, even though the international market for these products is worth more than US$ 288 billion annually. The Brazilian Amazon captures less than 0.3% of this market (Coslovsky, 2026).<\/td><td>Forest and agroforestry supply chains are excluded from the main rural financing instrument.<\/td><td>Prioritize credit for forest-compatible supply chains. Facilitate access for producers in this sector. Foster operational efficiency, innovation, productivity, trade promotion, and pre-competitive arrangements.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Constitutional Fund for Financing the North (FNO)<\/strong><\/td><td>The FNO is funded by 0.6% of income tax and IPI revenue. In 2019, R$ 9.3 billion was budgeted, more than three times the regional disbursement by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES).<br>However, 97% of establishments qualified as priority, and the ceiling for the small-to-medium size category reached R$ 16 million (Pereira and Souza, 2022).<\/td><td>Overly broad criteria dilute prioritization.<\/td><td>Revise the selection criteria to concentrate resources on smaller producers and in consolidated regions.<br>Goal: implement credit lines for the most<br>sustainable activities, such as FNO-ABC (low-carbon agriculture).<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Manaus Free Trade Zone (ZFM)<\/strong><\/td><td>In 2019, the ZFM received more than R$ 5 billion in tax exemptions. The Manaus Industrial Hub comprised about 500 companies, with revenues of R$ 105 billion. Only 2% of sales were exported; 65% of inputs were imported; 59% of employees earned up to twice the minimum wage; and wages accounted for 5% of revenue, compared with a national average of 11%. The ZFM\u2019s benefits have been extended through 2073 (Schutze et al., 2021; Assun\u00e7\u00e3o et al., 2020).<\/td><td>The tax incentive has little connection to exports, regional suppliers, productivity gains, or the Amazon\u2019s comparative advantages.<\/td><td>Link incentives to the creation of skilled jobs, workforce training, infrastructure, bioeconomy development, technology, and specialized services.<br>Tie them to clear productivity and local-integration requirements.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Mining<\/strong><br><strong>Royalties<\/strong><br>&nbsp;<\/td><td>Par\u00e1\u2019s mining revenues exceeded R$ 103.1 billion in 2025, accounting for more than 80% of the state\u2019s exports.<br>Between 2007 and 2025, R$ 16.7 billion in CFEM was transferred to municipalities in Par\u00e1; Parauapebas and Cana\u00e3 dos Caraj\u00e1s received 82% of the total (ANM, 2025). About half of any increase in CFEM revenue tends to go to current expenditures. Cana\u00e3 dos Caraj\u00e1s relies on royalties for 63% of its revenue, and Parauapebas for 40% (Ara\u00fajo and Bragan\u00e7a, 2022).<\/td><td>Mineral wealth is not being converted, on the necessary scale, into infrastructure, health care, education, and long-term planning capacity.<\/td><td>These funds must be used exclusively for investments in infrastructure, health, education, and<br>long-term planning and should supplement the municipality\u2019s financial responsibilities.<br>Investments must always aim to support the municipality\u2019s economic transition to a post-mining economy.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Sustainable Amazon Requires Rethinking the Government\u2019s Role in the Region<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brazil has the tools to change the Amazon\u2019s development trajectory, but doing so requires a shift in focus. The same public banks, constitutional funds, and tax incentives that often finance frontier expansion\u2014keeping the region trapped in a vicious cycle of low productivity, informality, and deforestation\u2014can be redirected toward more intensive, productive, and deforestation-free land uses. Standing forests, agroforestry, and forest-based activities, including restoration, must also be recognized as essential to the region\u2019s development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brazil has already shown that it can drastically reduce deforestation through well-coordinated command-and-control measures. But curbing deforestation, while necessary, is not enough. An equally coordinated set of measures is needed to turn already-deforested land, the remaining forest, and the region\u2019s young workforce into sources of productivity, income, and jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">References<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ANM \u2013 National Mining Agency. 2025. <em>Collection of the Financial Compensation for the Exploitation of Mineral Resources (CFEM)<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alfenas, Fl\u00e1via, Francisco Cavalcanti, and Gustavo Gonzaga. 2020. <em>Job Market in the Brazilian Amazon: A Comparative Analysis between the Brazilian Amazon and the Rest of the Country<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ara\u00fajo, Rafael, and Arthur Bragan\u00e7a. 2022. <em>Mining Royalties and Socioeconomic Development in Par\u00e1<\/em>. CPI\/PUC-Rio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ara\u00fajo, Rafael, Arthur Bragan\u00e7a, and Juliano Assun\u00e7\u00e3o. 2022. <em>Accessibility in the Legal Amazon: Digital Solutions<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, Juliano, and Jos\u00e9 A. Scheinkman. 2023. <em>Carbon and the Fate of the Amazon<\/em>. CPI\/PUC-Rio and Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, Juliano, Amanda Schutze, and Rhayana Holz. 2020. <em>Does the Manaus Free Trade Zone Have an Impact on Industry Efficiency?<\/em> CPI\/PUC-Rio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barreto, Paulo, Ritaumaria Pereira, and Arthur Jos\u00e9 da Silva Rocha. 2024. <em>From \u201cScarcity\u201d to Abundance: The Case of Cattle Ranching in the Amazon<\/em>. Bel\u00e9m: Amaz\u00f4nia 2030\/Imazon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barreto, Paulo, Arthur Jos\u00e9 da Silva Rocha, Amintas Brand\u00e3o, Ritaumaria Pereira, and Gabriel Salles Barreto. 2025.<em> Lessons from the Expansion of Cattle Ranching in Brazil (2000\u20132023) for Sustainable and Efficient Production<\/em>. Bel\u00e9m: Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brito, Brenda. 2022. <em>Land Tenure Regularization on Federal Lands in the Amazon<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brito, Brenda, Jeferson Almeida, Pedro Gomes, and Rodney Salom\u00e3o. 2021. <em>Dez Fatos Essenciais sobre Regulariza\u00e7\u00e3o Fundi\u00e1ria na Amaz\u00f4nia [Ten Essential Facts about Land Tenure Regularization in the Amazon]<\/em>. Bel\u00e9m: Imazon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chain Reaction Research. 2022. <em>JBS, Marfrig, and Minerva Unlikely Compliant with Upcoming EU Deforestation Law.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chein, Fl\u00e1via, and Igor Proc\u00f3pio. 2022. <em>As Cidades na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal: Diagn\u00f3stico, Desafios e Oportunidades para Urbaniza\u00e7\u00e3o Sustent\u00e1vel [Cities in the Legal Amazon: Diagnosis, Challenges, and Opportunities for Sustainable Urbanization]<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CNM \u2013 National Confederation of Municipalities. 2023. <em>Technical Study: Agricultural and Livestock Losses in the Last 10 Years<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coslovsky, Salo. 2021. <em>Opportunities for Exporting Forest-Compatible Products from the Brazilian Amazon.<\/em> Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coslovsky, Salo. 2026. <em>Productive Reforestation, Conservation, and Economic Development in the Brazilian Amazon<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coslovsky, Salo, and Beto Ver\u00edssimo. 2025. <em>To Protect the Amazon, We Have to Reforest It<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030, Policy Brief #4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cruz, T\u00e1ssia, and Juliana Portella. 2021. <em>Education in the Legal Amazon: Assessment and Critical Factors<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">EPE \u2013 Energy Research Office. 2025. <em>Statistical Yearbook of Electricity 2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">European Union. 2023. <em>Regulation (EU) 2023\/1115 of the European Parliament and of the Council of May 31, 2023 (European Union Deforestation Regulation)<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">FBSP \u2013 Brazilian Public Security Forum. 2023, 2024, 2025.<em> Mapping the Presence of Criminal Factions in the Municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gandour, Clarissa. 2021. <em>Public Policies for the Protection of the Amazon Forest: What Works and How to Improve<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IBGE \u2013 Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. 2025\/2026. <em>Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Cont\u00ednua)<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">INPE \u2013 National Institute for Space Research. 2025. <em>PRODES: Satellite Monitoring of Deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">INPE \u2013 National Institute for Space Research. 2026. <em>PRODES: Annual Deforestation Rates in the Brazilian Legal Amazon<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ministry of Health. 2025. <em>Mortality Information System (SIM\/DATASUS).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mour\u00e3o, Jo\u00e3o, Mariana Stussi, and Priscila Souza. 2024. <em>CAR a CAR: As Institui\u00e7\u00f5es Financeiras e o Cr\u00e9dito para Propriedades com Desmatamento [CAR by CAR: Financial Institutions and Credit for Properties with Deforestation]<\/em>. CPI\/PUC-Rio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nobre, Antonio D. 2014. <em>The Future Climate of Amazonia: Scientific Assessment Report<\/em>. S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos: Articulaci\u00f3n Regional Amaz\u00f3nica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Soares, Rodrigo R., Leila Pereira, and Rafael Pucci. 2021.<em> Illegality and Violence in the Amazon.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pereira, Leila, and Priscila Souza. 2022. <em>Priorities That Don\u2019t Prioritize: The Mismatch Between Objectives and the Allocation of Resources from Constitutional Funds Leads to Credit Concentration in the Rural Sector<\/em>. CPI\/PUC-Rio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pereira, Leila, Rafael Pucci, and Rodrigo R. Soares. 2025. <em>Landing on Water: Aerial Interdiction, Drug Trafficking, and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pinto, Andr\u00e9ia, Paulo Amaral, Rodney Salom\u00e3o, Lu\u00eds Oliveira Jr., Carlos Alexandre da Cunha, and Lucas Figueiredo. 2021.<em> Large-Scale Forest Restoration in the Amazon: The Potential of Secondary Vegetation<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pinto, Gustavo R. S., and Jo\u00e3o Pedro Arbache. 2025a. <em>When the River Runs Dry: How Amazon Deforestation Threatens the Brazilian Economy<\/em>. Rio de Janeiro: CPI\/PUC-Rio and Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pinto, Gustavo R. S., and Jo\u00e3o Pedro Arbache. 2025b. <em>Deforestation Cuts Off the Light: Itaipu, Belo Monte, and the Price of the Lost Forest.<\/em> CPI\/PUC-Rio and Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Santos, Daniel et al. 2026. <em>Facts About the Amazon 2026. <\/em>Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Schneider, Robert R. 1995. <em>Government and the Economy on the Amazon Frontier.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Washington, D.C.: World Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Schutze, Amanda, Rhayana Holz, and Juliano Assun\u00e7\u00e3o. 2021. <em>Aprimorando a Zona Franca de Manaus: Li\u00e7\u00f5es da Experi\u00eancia Internacional [Improving the Manaus Free Trade Zone: Lessons from International Experience]<\/em>. CPI\/PUC-Rio and Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Seeg \u2013 System for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals. 2025. <em>Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Their Implications for Brazil\u2019s Climate Goals. Climate Observatory.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Soares, Rodrigo, Leila Pereira, and Rafael Pucci. 2025. <em>From the Illegal Exploitation of Natural Resources to International Cocaine Trafficking: Patterns of Violence in the Brazilian Amazon<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Turra, C\u00e1ssio, Jos\u00e9 Irineu R. Rigotti, Fernando Fernandes, and Renato Hadad. 2022. <em>A Din\u00e2mica Demogr\u00e1fica da Amaz\u00f4nia Legal: Popula\u00e7\u00e3o e Transi\u00e7\u00e3o Demogr\u00e1fica na Regi\u00e3o Norte do Brasil [The Demographic Dynamics of the Legal Amazon: Population and Demographic Transition in Brazil\u2019s North Region]<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030. http:\/\/doi.org\/10.59346\/report.amazonia2030.202203.ed32<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ver\u00edssimo, Beto, Juliano Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, and Paulo Barreto. 2022.<em> The Amazon Paradox<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ver\u00edssimo, Beto, Juliano Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, Paulo Barreto, Manuele Lima, and Daniel Santos. 2022. <em>The 5 Amazons: Foundations for the Sustainable Development of the Legal Amazon<\/em>. Amaz\u00f4nia 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wilm, Melissa et al. 2026. <em>2026 Brazil Social Progress Index: Quality of Life in Brazil\u2019s 5,570 Municipalities<\/em>. IPS Brasil\/Social Progress Imperative\/Imazon\/Amaz\u00f4nia 2030\/Avina Foundation\/CEA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Xinhua News Agency. 2026. <em>Report on the Tianjin Meat Association\u2019s agreement to import Brazilian beef certified as deforestation-free<\/em>. Link to the original article not found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We would like to thank Alexandre Mansur, Brenda Brito, Joana Chiavari, Giovanna Miranda, Natalie Hoover, and the other participants of the Amazon 2030 project for their comments. This report received financial support from Instituto Clima e Sociedade (iCS), Instituto Ita\u00fasa, and the Good Energies Foundation. The data and opinions expressed in this report are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the study\u2019s funders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" id=\"_ftn1\"><sup>[1]<\/sup><\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Other equally relevant instruments\u2014such as investments in infrastructure, regulation, the role of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), trade agreements, and innovation and research policies\u2014are not addressed here and may be the subject of future reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" id=\"_ftn2\"><sup>[2]<\/sup><\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The FNO was established by the 1988 Federal Constitution and is regulated by Law No. 7,827 of 1989. It receives 0.6% of revenue from the Tax on Industrialized Products (IPI) and the Income Tax, transferred by the National Treasury. Operated by Basa, it offers subsidized credit to businesses that have difficulty accessing the traditional financial system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" id=\"_ftn3\"><sup>[3]<\/sup><\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Manaus Free Trade Zone (ZFM) was established in 1967 to develop industry and boost the economy of Brazil\u2019s North region. Firms located in the Manaus Industrial Hub receive federal tax relief, including reduced import duties, and the regime has been extended through 2073 (Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, Holz, and Schutze, 2020; Schutze, Holz, and Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#_ftnref4\" id=\"_ftn4\"><sup>[4]<\/sup><\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Royalties paid to the federal government, states, the Federal District, and municipalities for the economic exploitation of mineral resources within their territories. Provided for in Article 20, paragraph 1, of the 1988 Constitution. Currently regulated by Law No. 13,540\/2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Introduction The Brazilian Amazon rainforest holds one of the world\u2019s largest terrestrial carbon stocks and helps regulate the country\u2019s water cycle through the flying rivers. These environmental services sustain agriculture and livestock, hydroelectric generation, river transportation, and urban water supply across Brazil. Given its environmental, economic, and social importance, the Amazon rainforest is, above all, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":265,"featured_media":124681,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"programs":[1846,725],"regions":[10,353],"topics":[1768,1803,287],"collaborations":[],"class_list":["post-126881","cpi_publications","type-cpi_publications","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","programs-amazonia-2030-2","programs-brazil","regions-amazon","regions-brazil","topics-bioeconomy","topics-deforestation","topics-rural-credit"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Amazon in Focus: How to Redirect Public Resources to Support the Region\u2019s Sustainable Development - CPI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/the-amazon-in-focus-how-to-redirect-public-resources-to-support-the-regions-sustainable-development\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Amazon in Focus: How to Redirect Public Resources to Support the Region\u2019s Sustainable Development - CPI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Introduction The Brazilian Amazon rainforest holds one of the world\u2019s largest terrestrial carbon stocks and helps regulate the country\u2019s water cycle through the flying rivers. These environmental services sustain agriculture and livestock, hydroelectric generation, river transportation, and urban water supply across Brazil. Given its environmental, economic, and social importance, the Amazon rainforest is, above all, [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/the-amazon-in-focus-how-to-redirect-public-resources-to-support-the-regions-sustainable-development\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CPI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ClimatePolicyInitiative\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-11-05T13:08:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/thumb_amz_foco-1024x600.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@climatepolicy\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimasi waktu membaca\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"25 menit\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\\\/publication\\\/the-amazon-in-focus-how-to-redirect-public-resources-to-support-the-regions-sustainable-development\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\\\/publication\\\/the-amazon-in-focus-how-to-redirect-public-resources-to-support-the-regions-sustainable-development\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Amazon in Focus: How to Redirect Public Resources to Support the Region\u2019s Sustainable Development - 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Abatement Finance: Current Landscape and Pathways to Scale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This brief, from Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), assesses the gap between methane abatement financing tracked during 2021\u20132023 and the investment required to meet the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) target of reducing emissions by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>With a 1.5 \u00b0C temperature overshoot now widely assessed as locked in, the central challenge is to limit peak warming, reduce the duration of exceedance, and return temperatures below that level (United Nations 2026). <\/strong>Slowing warming in the near term will require urgent action to reduce emissions of methane (CH<sub>4<\/sub>)\u2014a powerful greenhouse gas responsible for roughly one-third of today\u2019s warming \u2014alongside rapid mitigation of other non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases and deep and sustained decarbonization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Methane mitigation offers one of the fastest and most cost-effective opportunities to deliver near-term benefits for climate, air quality, public health, food security, and economic development.<\/strong> The GMP, launched in 2021 at COP26, has catalyzed ambitious action and now includes 159 countries and the European Union. Participants have committed to taking voluntary action toward a collective goal of reducing global methane emissions by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030. Achieving the target can generate substantial climate, health, and agriculture benefits valued at more than US$ 330 billion annually by 2030 (UNEP 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The necessary emission reductions are technically feasible, and the financing challenge associated with achieving the GMP target can now be quantified.<\/strong> The <a href=\"https:\/\/wedocs.unep.org\/items\/5711c0ab-d298-4d2d-8283-387d89b2325b\">Global Methane Status Report<\/a> estimated US$ 122 billion in annual capital expenditure (CAPEX) and US$ 101 billion in annual operation and maintenance costs (OPEX). Methane abatement can also generate significant financial returns, including approximately US$ 96 billion annually from valorization of recovered natural gas and biogas, bringing the estimated net annual costs to US$ 127 billion (UNEP 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Against this benchmark, this brief tracks methane abatement finance across three major methane-emitting sectors \u2013 fossil fuels, waste, and agriculture \u2013 from 2021 to 2023.<\/strong> The analysis compares tracked flows with estimated annual costs through 2030 under the Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction (MTFR) scenario assessed in the Global Methane Status Report (UNEP 2025). It presents sectoral and regional findings and concludes with recommendations for scaling methane abatement finance, highlighting how different stakeholders can improve the enabling environment and deliver sector-specific solutions to increase finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This brief forms part of the joint body of work by Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) under the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ccacoalition.org\/projects\/super-pollutant-investment-analysis\">Super Pollutant Investment Analysis<\/a> and complements the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/state-of-super-pollutants-abatement-finance\/\">State of Super Pollutants Abatement Finance report (CPI 2026c)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key findings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tracked global methane abatement finance totaled US$ 5.2 billion in 2023, declining from US$ 7.7 billion in 2021. <\/strong>This represents only 4 percent of the estimated US$ 122 billion annual CAPEX to achieve the GMP target by 2030. At the aggregate level, US$ 3.4 billion (66 percent) came from public sources and US$ 1.8 billion (34 percent) from private sources. Finance was also predominantly international, with US$ 3.7 billion (71 percent) from international sources, compared with US$ 1.5 billion (29 percent) from domestic sources. However, these aggregate figures mask substantial differences across sectors and subsectors, reflecting distinct project economics, financing structures, and data availability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fossil fuels<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Limited data and an absence of standardized reporting frameworks constrain the tracking of methane abatement finance in the fossil fuel sector.<\/strong> Obtaining these figures is also hindered by the difficulty of isolating methane-specific investments from broader OPEX. Against this backdrop, tracked finance for fossil fuel methane abatement remains very limited, reaching just US$ 20 million in 2023 and US$ 360 million in 2021, with no 2022 flows identified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Methane abatement in the fossil fuel sector requires an estimated annual US$ 96 billion in CAPEX and US$ 42 billion in OPEX by 2030, with recovered natural gas generating around US$ 40 billion in annual savings.<\/strong> Readily available technologies could cut methane emissions by 94 million tonnes (Mt) annually, providing the largest cost-effective mitigation potential across sectors, with many interventions yielding high financial returns. Mobilizing finance will require stronger regulatory frameworks and targeted financing instruments, while ensuring responsible asset management and avoiding long-term fossil fuel lock-in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Agriculture<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Agriculture accounted for US$ 1.4 billion (27 percent) of tracked methane abatement finance in 2023, up from US$ 1.1 billion in 2021 after dipping to US$ 845 million in 2022. In 2023, over 85 percent was directed to measures related to smallholder and pastoralist systems and rice paddy management.<\/strong> Sub-Saharan Africa received the largest share of finance (55 percent), followed by East Asia and the Pacific (20 percent). Public sources drove financing in 2023 (86 percent), with grants and low-cost debt making up most financial instruments. Although cost-effective solutions exist, high upfront costs and limited access to finance constrain adoption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Meeting the sector\u2019s estimated annual needs of US$ 13 billion in CAPEX and US$ 54 billion in OPEX by 2030 will require stronger financing frameworks and greater private sector engagement.<\/strong> Blended finance can help address upfront financing barriers, while developing carbon-market opportunities and clearer standards, such as science-based sector-specific eligibility criteria for methane-relevant measures, could unlock additional private capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Waste<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Methane abatement finance in the waste sector fell for the second consecutive year to US$ 3.8 billion in 2023, down from US$ 6.2 billion in 2021.<\/strong> The decline was largely due to reduced investment in solid waste-to-energy (WtE) incineration, although investment in non-incineration and upstream solutions increased from a low base. Finance was divided broadly between activities in solid waste (US$ 1.8 billion) and wastewater (US$ 2 billion). Private finance dominated solid waste, while public finance \u2013 particularly from multilateral and bilateral development finance institutions (DFIs) \u2013 supported wastewater. Finance also remained geographically concentrated, with South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa accounting for limited investment despite growing needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The waste sector requires an estimated US$ 13 billion in annual CAPEX through 2030.<\/strong> However, its cost profile and fragmented network of municipalities and local implementers create challenges for both scaling investment and tracking it. Scaling finance will require broader investment across the waste hierarchy, stronger municipal project pipelines and revenue models, and improved access to larger-scale finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Recommendations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Methane abatement offers one of the fastest and most cost-effective opportunities for slowing near-term global warming. Reducing methane emissions has been described as the climate &#8216;emergency brake&#8217; while also delivering major benefits for air quality, public health, food security and economic development. <\/strong>Recognizing the urgency, the United Nations Secretary-General\u2019s Call to Action on Methane (United Nations 2026) sets out priorities for governments, industry and financial institutions to accelerate implementation across fossil fuels, agriculture and waste, which have been referenced and built upon to inform the recommendations in this report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Increasing financial flows alone will not be sufficient to deliver the reductions needed. <\/strong>Public and private institutions should strengthen the enabling environment for methane abatement by improving policy and regulatory frameworks, developing credible project pipelines and standards, and expanding access to appropriate forms of capital. These cross-cutting actions should be complemented by sector-specific measures to address the distinct barriers to investment in fossil fuels, agriculture, and waste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The brief identifies six priority areas for scaling methane abatement finance:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Embed methane abatement<\/strong> in national policies, strategies, and regulations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strengthen monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems<\/strong> to improve transparency, accountability, and investor confidence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Build bankable project pipelines<\/strong> through project preparation, aggregation mechanisms, and targeted de-risking instruments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fossil fuels:<\/strong> embed methane abatement in credible transition plans and leverage buyer and importer demand, regulation, and supply-chain partnerships to create stronger market signals and support suppliers in investing in methane reductions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Agriculture:<\/strong> support targeted research and development (R&amp;D) and innovation to scale practical, cost-effective abatement solutions and approaches suited to fragmented production systems.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Waste:<\/strong> improve the bankability of municipal waste methane projects through improved revenue collection, project aggregation and municipal pipelines.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span class=\"button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Methane-Abatement-Finance-Current-Landscape-and-Pathways-to-Scale.pdf\">Explore the methane brief<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This brief tracks methane abatement finance across three major methane-emitting sectors from 2021 to 2023 and identifies pathways to scale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":235,"featured_media":126849,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"programs":[1761],"regions":[],"topics":[1894,1936,1920],"collaborations":[],"class_list":["post-126086","cpi_publications","type-cpi_publications","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","programs-climate-finance-tracking","topics-climate-finance","topics-methane","topics-super-pollutants"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Methane Abatement Finance: Current Landscape and Pathways to Scale - CPI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/methane-abatement-finance-current-landscape-and-pathways-to-scale\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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the Climate Transition of the Global Financial System: Insights from the Net Zero Finance Tracker\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The global financial sector has made significant progress in responding to climate change, but momentum is stalling. Findings from the <a href=\"https:\/\/netzerofinancetracker.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">Net Zero Finance Tracker 2026<\/a> highlight a persistent gap between climate ambition and the investment decisions needed to deliver the net-zero transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Drawing on an assessment of 1,500 of the world&#8217;s major financial institutions, the report examines progress across climate targets, implementation, and real-economy outcomes. It identifies where financial institutions are making meaningful advances, where challenges remain, and the actions needed to accelerate the transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h2>\n\n\n<section class=\"block block-chart is-image\"><div is=\"chart\/image\" class=\"chart-image\">\n\t\t<script type=\"json\/props\">{\n    \"colors\": []\n}<\/script>\n\n\t\t\n\t\t<div element=\"tabs\"><\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"block-chart--image image--link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/NZFT_Figure-1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><div class=\"image--wrap is-landscape\"><img src='https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/NZFT_Figure-1.png' class=\"image is-landscape\" alt=\"NZFT_Figure-1\" style=\"max-width:100%\" \/><\/div><\/a><!-- image html = <a class=\"block-chart--image image--link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/NZFT_Figure-1.png\" target=\"_blank\"><div class=\"image--wrap is-landscape\"><img src='https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/NZFT_Figure-1.png' class=\"image is-landscape\" alt=\"NZFT_Figure-1\" style=\"max-width:100%\" \/><\/div><\/a>-->\t\t\n\t\t<div element=\"canvas\"><\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t<group name=\"\">\n\t\t\t<!-- tab -->\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/group>\n\t\t\n\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/section>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Climate targets and implementation are losing momentum<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the first time since 2019, progress on climate targets and implementation among major financial institutions has stalled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2025, financial institutions representing only around a quarter of assessed assets under management or ownership scored &#8220;Progressing&#8221; or above on climate targets, while institutions representing approximately two-fifths of assessed assets achieved this level on implementation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although climate risk management and governance practices have strengthened considerably, institutions continue to struggle to translate these capabilities into measurable changes in financing and corporate behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Clean energy financing is accelerating, but fossil-fuel exposure remains significant<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Clean energy and transition activities accounted for 71% of tracked direct energy project finance in 2025, reflecting growing investment in cleaner energy solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, this progress has yet to translate fully into existing investment portfolios. Clean energy represented just 23% of tracked energy portfolio exposure, while substantial fossil-fuel exposure remained linked to companies planning production expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These findings highlight the need for financial institutions to move beyond increasing clean energy investment and address the transition pathways of companies already represented in their portfolios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Portfolio alignment is improving, but emissions reductions remain off track<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While estimated Scope 1 and 2 portfolio emissions declined by 7% in 2025 to 2.4 GtCO\u2082e, they remained well above the illustrative 1.5\u00b0C-aligned level of 1.7 GtCO\u2082e. Only 12.5% of financed emissions came from companies classified as &#8220;Aligned&#8221; or &#8220;Aligning&#8221;, highlighting the persistent gap between climate commitments and measurable decarbonization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Portfolio alignment has improved, with 35% of assessed portfolio exposure invested in companies classified as Aligned or Aligning in 2025, up from 11% in 2020. However, progress remains limited in high-emitting sectors, with just 0.6% of assessed oil and gas portfolio exposure classified as &#8220;Aligned&#8221; or &#8220;Aligning&#8221;. These findings underscore the need for stronger transition plans, targeted engagement, and measurable emissions reductions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Climate risks are intensifying across financial portfolios<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The report highlights how financial risks shift under different global warming scenarios. Under a 1.5\u00b0C scenario, transition risks dominate modeled portfolio losses, particularly among companies that are not aligned with a low-carbon transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At 2\u00b0C, and especially 3\u00b0C, economy-wide physical climate impacts become the dominant source of modeled portfolio losses, underscoring the importance of an orderly transition alongside stronger adaptation and resilience measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emerging markets face greater financing and resilience challenges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) face slower growth in clean and transition project finance, weaker corporate climate alignment, and greater modeled physical climate vulnerability than advanced economies within the portfolios assessed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">High financing costs, currency risks, and institutional capacity constraints continue to limit investment where climate and development needs are greatest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Addressing these barriers requires country-specific transition pathways, stronger project preparation, local-currency finance, and targeted public support to mobilize investment in decarbonization and resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">From climate commitments to measurable outcomes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite these challenges, the report finds that stronger climate practices are associated with better financing and real-economy outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Financial institutions with stronger targets, transition plans, implementation practices, and disclosure demonstrate more favorable financing and portfolio outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The findings reinforce the importance of moving beyond commitments and reporting toward credible transition plans that guide capital allocation, strengthen corporate engagement, and support measurable emissions reductions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next phase of the financial sector&#8217;s climate transition must focus on delivery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Global Report 2026 outlines recommendations for financial institutions, policymakers, and regulators to strengthen accountability, accelerate investment in climate solutions, and build resilience to growing climate risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Read the full report for insights on how the financial sector can translate climate ambition into meaningful impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span class=\"button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/NZFT-Global-FIs-Report-2026.pdf\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/NZFT-Global-FIs-Report-2026.pdf\">REAd the report<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span class=\"button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/netzerofinancetracker.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/netzerofinancetracker.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/\">EXPLORE THE DASHBOARD<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span class=\"button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Net-Zero-Finance-Tracker-Methodology-2026.pdf\">NZFT methodology<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Drawing on an assessment of 1,500 of the world&#8217;s major financial institutions, this report examines progress across climate targets, implementation, and real-economy outcomes. 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!important;\n      text-wrap: pretty !important; \/* Improves final-line wrapping in paragraphs *\/\n    }\n\n    .cpi-roadmap-hero .cpi-roadmap-hero__actions {\n      display: block !important;\n      margin: 34px 0 0 !important;\n      padding: 0 !important;\n      float: none !important;\n      clear: both !important;\n    }\n\n    .cpi-roadmap-hero a.cpi-roadmap-hero__download,\n    .cpi-roadmap-hero a.cpi-roadmap-hero__download:visited {\n      display: inline-flex !important;\n      align-items: center !important;\n      justify-content: center !important;\n      gap: 10px;\n      width: auto !important;\n      min-height: 50px;\n      padding: 14px 25px !important;\n      border: 0 !important;\n      border-radius: 999px !important;\n      background: var(--rm-green) !important;\n      color: #fff !important;\n      font-family: \"DM Sans\", system-ui, sans-serif !important;\n      font-size: 14px !important;\n      font-weight: 700 !important;\n      line-height: 1.3 !important;\n      letter-spacing: 0 !important;\n      text-align: center !important;\n      text-decoration: none !important;\n      text-transform: none !important;\n      box-shadow: 0 16px 34px rgba(0,0,0,.2);\n      cursor: pointer;\n      transition: background .2s ease, transform .2s ease;\n    }\n\n    .cpi-roadmap-hero a.cpi-roadmap-hero__download:hover,\n    .cpi-roadmap-hero a.cpi-roadmap-hero__download:focus-visible {\n      background: var(--rm-green-hover) !important;\n      color: #fff !important;\n      text-decoration: none !important;\n      transform: translateY(-2px);\n      outline-offset: 4px;\n    }\n\n    .cpi-roadmap-hero .cpi-roadmap-hero__download-icon {\n      display: block !important;\n      width: 17px;\n      height: 17px;\n      flex: 0 0 auto;\n      stroke: currentColor;\n    }\n\n    @media (max-width: 700px) {\n      .cpi-roadmap-hero,\n      .cpi-roadmap-hero .cpi-roadmap-hero__inner {\n        min-height: auto;\n      }\n\n      .cpi-roadmap-hero .cpi-roadmap-hero__inner {\n        width: calc(100% - 36px) !important;\n        padding: 68px 0 76px !important;\n      }\n\n      .cpi-roadmap-hero h1.cpi-roadmap-hero__title {\n        font-size: clamp(30px, 8vw, 43px) !important;\n        line-height: 1.12 !important;\n      }\n\n      .cpi-roadmap-hero p.cpi-roadmap-hero__body {\n        font-size: 15px !important;\n        line-height: 1.68 !important;\n        margin-top: 22px !important;\n      }\n\n      .cpi-roadmap-hero a.cpi-roadmap-hero__download {\n        width: 100% !important;\n        max-width: 430px !important;\n        padding: 16px 18px !important;\n      }\n    }\n\n    @media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce) {\n      .cpi-roadmap-hero a.cpi-roadmap-hero__download {\n        transition: none;\n      }\n    }\n  <\/style>\n\n  <div class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__video-wrap\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n    <video class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__video\" autoplay=\"\" muted=\"\" loop=\"\" playsinline=\"\" preload=\"metadata\" poster=\"https:\/\/images.unsplash.com\/photo-1448375240586-882707db888b?w=1800&amp;q=85\">\n      <source src=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/hero-forest2.webm\" type=\"video\/webm\">\n      <source src=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/hero-forest2.mp4\" type=\"video\/mp4\">\n    <\/video>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__overlay\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__inner\">\n    <div class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__content\">\n      <h1 class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__title\" id=\"cpi-roadmap-hero-title\">\n        COP30 Presidency Roadmap on Enhancing Efforts Towards <em>Halting and Reversing<\/em> Deforestation and Forest Degradation by&nbsp;2030\n      <\/h1>\n\n      <p class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__body\">\n        The COP30 Presidency launches the Roadmap to support the implementation of the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, particularly its call to enhance efforts towards halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by&nbsp;2030.\n      <\/p>\n\n      <p class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__body\">\n        The document brings together evidence, implementation experiences, and proposals to accelerate forest action through country-led initiatives, stronger international cooperation, and&nbsp;finance.\n      <\/p>\n\n      <div class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__actions\">\n        <a class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__download\" href=\"https:\/\/cop30.br\/en\/news-about-cop30\/roadmap-forests\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\n          <svg class=\"cpi-roadmap-hero__download-icon\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke-width=\"2\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n            <path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"><\/path>\n            <polyline points=\"7 10 12 15 17 10\"><\/polyline>\n            <line x1=\"12\" y1=\"15\" x2=\"12\" y2=\"3\"><\/line>\n          <\/svg>\n          DOWNLOAD THE FULL ROADMAP (PDF)\n        <\/a>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-section has-large-font-size\">ABOUT THE ROADMAP<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>COP30 Presidency Roadmap on Enhancing Efforts towards Halting and Reversing Deforestation and Forest Degradation by 2030<\/strong> is an initiative of the COP30 Presidency to support the implementation of the first Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement. Its objective is to identify opportunities to accelerate existing efforts while taking into account different national circumstances and priorities.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Roadmap does not create new commitments, constitute a negotiated outcome, or seek to establish a new international framework. Rather, it brings together evidence, experiences, and solutions to inform discussions on <strong>how implementation can be accelerated through 2030<\/strong>. Its scope encompasses tropical, subtropical, temperate, and boreal forests, as well as related ecosystems such as peatlands and mangroves.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Roadmap is structured in three parts:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Part I. National Efforts to Halt and Reverse Deforestation and Forest Degradation<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Examines five dimensions of forest action: conservation; sustainable forest management, agroforestry, and bioeconomy; combating forest degradation; combating deforestation; and restoration, reforestation, and afforestation. It also addresses public policies, implementation approaches, and the enabling conditions needed to strengthen national action.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Part II. International Architecture for Forest Action<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Examines international instruments related to forests, opportunities to support national implementation, and challenges that operate across borders. It presents proposals in four areas: forest information and monitoring; technical cooperation and capacity-building; combating transnational environmental crimes; and international trade and forests.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Part III. Financing Forest Action<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Examines national and international sources, channels, and financing instruments, including public finance and private investment. It identifies opportunities to increase available resources and better align financing with the different dimensions of forest action.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CPI\/PUC-Rio served as the secretariat and technical partner to the COP30 Presidency, playing a central role in the analytical work and drafting of the document.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cop30.br\/en\/news-about-cop30\/roadmap-forests\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Roadmap02_Florestas_EN_v6.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><span class=\"button\">DOWNLOAD THE FULL ROADMAP<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:60%\">\n<section class=\"roadmap-info-cards\" aria-label=\"Caracter\u00edsticas do Roadmap\">\n  <style>\n    .roadmap-info-cards,\n    .roadmap-info-cards * {\n      box-sizing: border-box !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards {\n      --roadmap-navy: #10184a;\n      --roadmap-green: #2f6b45;\n      --roadmap-orange: #c8582a;\n      --roadmap-blue: #1f7ca6;\n      --roadmap-border: #d9dce5;\n      --roadmap-text: #222736;\n\n      width: 100% !important;\n      max-width: 720px !important;\n      margin: 0 !important;\n      padding: 0 !important;\n      font-family: \"DM Sans\", system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", sans-serif !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards__list {\n      display: block !important;\n      margin: 0 !important;\n      padding: 0 !important;\n      list-style: none !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards__item {\n      display: block !important;\n      position: relative !important;\n      min-height: 156px !important;\n      margin: 0 0 22px 0 !important;\n      padding: 28px 34px 28px 32px !important;\n      background: #ffffff !important;\n\n      border-top: 1.5px solid var(--roadmap-border) !important;\n      border-right: 1.5px solid var(--roadmap-border) !important;\n      border-bottom: 1.5px solid var(--roadmap-border) !important;\n      border-left-width: 4px !important;\n      border-left-style: solid !important;\n\n      border-radius: 12px !important;\n      box-shadow: 0 1px 2px rgba(16, 24, 74, 0.03) !important;\n      overflow: hidden !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards__item:last-child {\n      margin-bottom: 0 !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards__item--green {\n      border-left-color: var(--roadmap-green) !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards__item--navy {\n      border-left-color: var(--roadmap-navy) !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards__item--orange {\n      border-left-color: var(--roadmap-orange) !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards__item--blue {\n      border-left-color: var(--roadmap-blue) !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards__title {\n      display: block !important;\n      margin: 0 0 12px 0 !important;\n      padding: 0 !important;\n      color: var(--roadmap-navy) !important;\n      font-family: \"DM Sans\", system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", sans-serif !important;\n      font-size: 15px !important;\n      font-weight: 800 !important;\n      line-height: 1.35 !important;\n      letter-spacing: 0.01em !important;\n      text-transform: none !important;\n      background: transparent !important;\n      border: 0 !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-info-cards__text {\n      display: block !important;\n      margin: 0 !important;\n      padding: 0 !important;\n      color: var(--roadmap-text) !important;\n      font-family: \"DM Sans\", system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", sans-serif !important;\n      font-size: 16px !important;\n      font-weight: 400 !important;\n      line-height: 1.75 !important;\n      letter-spacing: 0.005em !important;\n      text-transform: none !important;\n      background: transparent !important;\n      border: 0 !important;\n    }\n\n    @media (max-width: 640px) {\n      .roadmap-info-cards {\n        max-width: 100% !important;\n      }\n\n      .roadmap-info-cards__item {\n        min-height: auto !important;\n        margin-bottom: 18px !important;\n        padding: 24px 24px 24px 28px !important;\n      }\n\n      .roadmap-info-cards__text {\n        font-size: 15px !important;\n        line-height: 1.7 !important;\n      }\n    }\n  <\/style>\n\n  <ul class=\"roadmap-info-cards__list\">\n<li class=\"roadmap-info-cards__item roadmap-info-cards__item--orange\">\n      <div class=\"roadmap-info-cards__title\">Multi-stakeholder Process<\/div>\n      <p class=\"roadmap-info-cards__text\">\n        The development process engages governments, international organizations, civil society, Indigenous Peoples, local communities, the private sector, financial institutions, and the scientific community.\n      <\/p>\n    <\/li>\n\n    <li class=\"roadmap-info-cards__item roadmap-info-cards__item--blue\">\n      <div class=\"roadmap-info-cards__title\">Diverse Forest Realities<\/div>\n      <p class=\"roadmap-info-cards__text\">\n        The Roadmap was designed to engage with diverse ecological realities, encompassing the world&#8217;s major forest biomes, including tropical and subtropical forests, temperate forests, boreal forests, and associated ecosystems such as mangroves and peatlands.\n      <\/p>\n    <\/li>\n\n    <li class=\"roadmap-info-cards__item roadmap-info-cards__item--green\">\n      <div class=\"roadmap-info-cards__title\">Practical Implementation<\/div>\n      <p class=\"roadmap-info-cards__text\">\n        The Roadmap does not seek to reopen agreed decisions. Its purpose is to organize existing commitments, public policy instruments, and financial mechanisms into a practical implementation framework.\n      <\/p>\n    <\/li>\n\n  <!--  <li class=\"roadmap-info-cards__item roadmap-info-cards__item--navy\">\n      <div class=\"roadmap-info-cards__title\">An Invitation to Countries<\/div>\n      <p class=\"roadmap-info-cards__text\">\n        Countries are invited to develop their own national forest roadmaps, adapted to local realities, existing institutions, and integrated with NDCs and national development strategies.\n      <\/p>\n    <\/li>-->\n    <\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading is-style-section has-large-font-size\">Documents<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This section brings together related materials and presentations delivered at international events.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<!-- Materials and resources | COP30 Forest Roadmap \u2014 self-contained WordPress HTML block -->\n<section class=\"roadmap-materials\" aria-label=\"Roadmap materials and resources\" lang=\"en\">\n  <style>\n    .roadmap-materials,\n    .roadmap-materials * {\n      box-sizing: border-box !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials {\n      --rm-navy: #10184a;\n      --rm-text: #5f667a;\n      --rm-border: #e1e3ea;\n      --rm-card-bg: #ffffff;\n      --rm-pdf-bg: #f4e8df;\n      --rm-pdf-text: #c8582a;\n      --rm-video-bg: #e7eef4;\n      --rm-video-text: #1f6f9b;\n\n      width: 100% !important;\n      margin: 0 !important;\n      padding: 0 !important;\n      font-family: \"DM Sans\", system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", sans-serif !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials__grid {\n      display: grid !important;\n      grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(0, 1fr)) !important;\n      gap: 26px !important;\n      margin: 0 !important;\n      padding: 0 !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials__card {\n      position: relative !important;\n      min-width: 0 !important;\n      min-height: 300px !important;\n      padding: 34px 34px 32px !important;\n      border: 1px solid var(--rm-border) !important;\n      border-radius: 12px !important;\n      background: var(--rm-card-bg) !important;\n      box-shadow: 0 1px 2px rgba(16, 24, 74, 0.02) !important;\n      display: flex !important;\n      flex-direction: column !important;\n      justify-content: flex-start !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials__badge {\n      position: absolute !important;\n      top: 34px !important;\n      right: 34px !important;\n      display: inline-flex !important;\n      align-items: center !important;\n      justify-content: center !important;\n      min-height: 28px !important;\n      padding: 7px 14px !important;\n      border-radius: 999px !important;\n      background: #eeeae3 !important;\n      color: #9b988f !important;\n      font-family: \"DM Sans\", system-ui, sans-serif !important;\n      font-size: 12px !important;\n      font-weight: 800 !important;\n      line-height: 1 !important;\n      letter-spacing: 0.12em !important;\n      text-transform: uppercase !important;\n      white-space: nowrap !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials__badge--pdf {\n      background: var(--rm-pdf-bg) !important;\n      color: var(--rm-pdf-text) !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials__badge--video {\n      background: var(--rm-video-bg) !important;\n      color: var(--rm-video-text) !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials h3.roadmap-materials__title {\n      margin: 80px 0 12px !important;\n      padding: 0 !important;\n      color: var(--rm-navy) !important;\n      font-family: \"DM Sans\", system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", sans-serif !important;\n      font-size: 18px !important;\n      font-weight: 800 !important;\n      line-height: 1.42 !important;\n      letter-spacing: 0.01em !important;\n      text-transform: none !important;\n      background: transparent !important;\n      border: 0 !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials p.roadmap-materials__meta {\n      margin: 0 0 22px !important;\n      padding: 0 !important;\n      color: var(--rm-text) !important;\n      font-family: \"DM Sans\", system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"Segoe UI\", sans-serif !important;\n      font-size: 15px !important;\n      font-weight: 400 !important;\n      line-height: 1.6 !important;\n      letter-spacing: 0.005em !important;\n      text-transform: none !important;\n    }\n\n    \/* Evita linhas finais muito curtas nos cards, inclusive no mobile.\n       'balance' equilibra os titulos; 'pretty' melhora as quebras dos paragrafos.\n       Em navegadores antigos, as regras sao ignoradas sem afetar o layout. *\/\n    .roadmap-materials h3.roadmap-materials__title {\n      text-wrap: balance !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials p.roadmap-materials__meta {\n      text-wrap: pretty !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials a.roadmap-materials__link,\n    .roadmap-materials a.roadmap-materials__link:visited {\n      color: inherit !important;\n      font: inherit !important;\n      text-decoration: none !important;\n      text-transform: none !important;\n    }\n\n    .roadmap-materials a.roadmap-materials__link:hover,\n    .roadmap-materials a.roadmap-materials__link:focus-visible {\n      text-decoration: underline !important;\n      text-underline-offset: 3px !important;\n    }\n\n    @media (max-width: 1020px) {\n      .roadmap-materials__grid {\n        grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr)) !important;\n      }\n    }\n\n    @media (max-width: 680px) {\n      .roadmap-materials__grid {\n        grid-template-columns: 1fr !important;\n        gap: 20px !important;\n      }\n\n      .roadmap-materials__card {\n        min-height: auto !important;\n        padding: 28px 26px !important;\n      }\n\n      .roadmap-materials__badge {\n        top: 28px !important;\n        right: 26px !important;\n      }\n\n      .roadmap-materials h3.roadmap-materials__title {\n        margin-top: 64px !important;\n        font-size: 17px !important;\n      }\n    }\n  <\/style>\n\n  <div class=\"roadmap-materials__grid\">\n\n    <article class=\"roadmap-materials__card\">\n      <span class=\"roadmap-materials__badge roadmap-materials__badge--pdf\">PDF<\/span>\n      <h3 class=\"roadmap-materials__title\">\n        <a class=\"roadmap-materials__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Roadmap-Presentation-at-UNFF21.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\n          Presentation at UNFF21 (May 2026)\n        <\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n      <p class=\"roadmap-materials__meta\">\n        Presentation delivered on May 11th, 2026 during the 21st Session of the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF21), held at United Nations Headquarters in New York City.\n      <\/p>\n    <\/article>\n\n    <article class=\"roadmap-materials__card\">\n      <span class=\"roadmap-materials__badge roadmap-materials__badge--pdf\">PDF<\/span>\n      <h3 class=\"roadmap-materials__title\">\n        <a class=\"roadmap-materials__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Apresentacao-Bonn.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\n          Presentation at SB64 in Bonn (June 2026)\n        <\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n      <p class=\"roadmap-materials__meta\">\n        Presentation used during meetings and events held as part of the UNFCCC SB64 Climate Conference in Bonn, Germany.\n      <\/p>\n    <\/article>\n\n    <article class=\"roadmap-materials__card\">\n      <span class=\"roadmap-materials__badge roadmap-materials__badge--pdf\">PDF<\/span>\n      <h3 class=\"roadmap-materials__title\">\n        <a class=\"roadmap-materials__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Apresentacao-LCAW.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\n          Presentation at London Climate Action Week (June 2026)\n        <\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n      <p class=\"roadmap-materials__meta\">\n        Presentation used during meetings and events held as part of London Climate Action Week (LCAW) in London, United Kingdom.\n      <\/p>\n    <\/article>\n\n    <article class=\"roadmap-materials__card\">\n      <span class=\"roadmap-materials__badge roadmap-materials__badge--video\">Video<\/span>\n      <h3 class=\"roadmap-materials__title\">\n        <a class=\"roadmap-materials__link\" href=\"https:\/\/webtv.un.org\/en\/asset\/k1w\/k1w44jofgf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\n          Outreach Meeting for COP30&#8217;s Roadmap on Halting and Reversing Deforestation and Forest Degradation by 2030\n        <\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n      <p class=\"roadmap-materials__meta\">\n        A recording of the event is available on UN Web TV.\n      <\/p>\n    <\/article>\n\n    <article class=\"roadmap-materials__card\">\n      <span class=\"roadmap-materials__badge roadmap-materials__badge--pdf\">PDF<\/span>\n      <h3 class=\"roadmap-materials__title\">\n        <a class=\"roadmap-materials__link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/Roadmap-presentation_COP-Presidency_COFO28.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\n          Presentation at COFO (October 2026)\n        <\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n      <p class=\"roadmap-materials__meta\">\n        Presentation delivered on October 1st, 2026, during the 28th Session of the Committee on Forestry of FAO, in Rome.\n      <\/p>\n    <\/article>\n\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The COP30 Presidency launches the Roadmap on Enhancing Efforts Towards Halting and Reversing Deforestation and Forest Degradation by 2030, with technical partnership from CPI\/PUC-Rio.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":233,"featured_media":121467,"template":"singular-scrollytelling.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"programs":[725],"regions":[392],"topics":[126],"collaborations":[],"class_list":["post-121603","cpi_publications","type-cpi_publications","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","programs-brazil","regions-global","topics-forests"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>COP30 Presidency Roadmap on Enhancing Efforts Towards Halting and Reversing Deforestation and Forest Degradation by 2030 Platform - CPI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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In an overshoot world, volume alone cannot show whether finance is working. Five questions follow finance past the point of commitment to show progress on long-lasting resilience.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":276,"featured_media":126420,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"programs":[1761],"regions":[392],"topics":[1010,1894,1199],"collaborations":[],"class_list":["post-126419","cpi_publications","type-cpi_publications","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","programs-climate-finance-tracking","regions-global","topics-adaptation-and-resilience","topics-climate-finance","topics-finance"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Adaptation and Resilience Finance in an Overshoot World: The Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2026 - CPI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/publication\/adaptation-and-resilience-finance-in-an-overshoot-world\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Adaptation and Resilience Finance in an Overshoot World: The Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2026 - CPI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global adaptation finance reached USD 69 billion in 2024, but the most climate-vulnerable countries remain underserved. In an overshoot world, volume alone cannot show whether finance is working. 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Asia \u2013 Panra Fund"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Overview<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Panra Fund<\/strong>, developed by <strong>Adaptation Asia<\/strong>, is a USD 50 million private debt vehicle deploying commercial and concessional capital, alongside grants, to unlock adaptation investment and strengthen smallholder resilience across Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Innovation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the Philippines, climate shocks can reduce agribusiness revenues by 40-60%, yet traditional loans maintain fixed repayment schedules, increasing defaults and causing lenders to withdraw credit precisely when businesses and farmers need capital to invest in resilience. Adaptation investment is further constrained by limited track records and difficulties measuring and monetizing resilience outcomes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Adaptation Asia \u2013 Panra Fund provides a financial solution suited to the climate volatility, cash-flow patterns, and perceived risks of smallholder-focused agribusinesses. It combines flexible revenue-based financing with verified Resilience Assets (RAs) in a single vehicle. Repayments adjust to agribusiness revenues and seasonal cash flows, reducing the mismatch between debt obligations and climate-driven income volatility.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, remote sensing and digital MRV convert measurable improvements in soil health, biodiversity, and other ecosystem outcomes into monetizable RAs, creating an additional revenue stream that primarily benefits farmers. This combination simultaneously de-risks lending, rewards regenerative practices, and makes adaptation outcomes measurable and investable.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Panra aims to support more than 1.8 million farmers, 60% of them women, across 5 million hectares in adopting climate-resilient practices over the next decade.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Implementation begins with a USD 1\u20132 million pilot in the Philippines to validate revenue-based financing and Resilience Assets before mobilizing the full fund and scaling regionally. Panra targets agribusinesses across the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>\u201cFrom enhancing our financial model, progressing our impact and risk framework, and connecting us with a wide group of partners and investors, the Lab has been an indispensable partner on our journey. We are now starting due diligence on our pilots over the coming months, focusing on implementation on the ground and working closely with agribusinesses and farmers in Southeast Asia.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ben Warren, CEO Adaptation Asia<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Design<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Panra is designed as a debt fund, combining senior commercial capital, junior concessional capital, and a technical assistance facility to de-risk investment in climate-resilient agribusinesses. Its investment strategy targets growth-stage, smallholder-focused agribusinesses across Southeast Asia, deploying USD 1\u20135 million per investment, with an average ticket size of USD 2.5 million.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Financing primarily uses revenue-based loans, complemented by term loans, to fund working capital, capital expenditure, trade finance, and growth initiatives. Repayments are aligned with agribusiness revenues and seasonal cash flows, while embedded Resilience Assets monetize verified ecosystem outcomes and generate additional benefits for farmers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"509\" src=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Panra-instrument-mechanics-01-1024x509.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-126121\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Panra-instrument-mechanics-01-1024x509.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Panra-instrument-mechanics-01-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Panra-instrument-mechanics-01-1536x763.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Panra-instrument-mechanics-01-2048x1017.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pipeline<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beyond the pilot in the Philippines, Panra has screened more than 30 agribusinesses across Southeast Asia, representing over USD 60 million in identified capital demand. Its pipeline targets growth-stage agribusinesses in high-value value chains, including cacao, rice, coffee, and bananas. The strategy prioritizes financially viable enterprises with measurable resilience impacts, strong farmer reach, and potential for replication and scale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A USD 50 million private debt vehicle that aims to unlock climate adaptation investment across Southeast Asia by financing agriculture-focused SMEs while supporting the climate resilience of smallholder farmers. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":185,"featured_media":126391,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"programs":[395],"regions":[1508],"topics":[842],"collaborations":[],"class_list":["post-126387","cpi_publications","type-cpi_publications","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","programs-global-innovation-lab-for-climate-finance","regions-philippines","topics-financial-innovation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ 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Andes Fund"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Overview<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Amazon Andes Fund, developed by IMPAQTO Capital, is a USD 30M private debt and equity vehicle deploying flexible capital (working capital, equipment financing and equity) to increase local value capture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Innovation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forest-compatible value chains have demonstrated commercial potential, but financial flows remain concentrated in established volume agriculture and other extractive sectors. Across Amazonia, soy and cattle attract over USD 30 billion in annual financing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s 100 times more than the approximately USD 300 million attracted by biodiversity-based products. Moreover, 30% of greenfield investment in Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador between 2020 and mid-2025 went to mining. The gap is particularly acute outside Brazil, which captured 85% of greenfield investment across the Amazon, leaving the Andean Amazon\u2019s lessdeveloped investment ecosystem unable to consistently originate and scale opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Amazon Andes Fund addresses this mismatch between available capital and enterprise needs by deploying debt and strategic equity aligned with business maturity and cash flow profiles across the value chain, taking a blended approach to managing risk in earlier-stage and geographically dispersed businesses. By helping downstream enterprises grow and secure higher-value markets, the fund aims to support more reliable purchasing, stronger producer relationships and better income opportunities close to origin. A regional team with networks across producers, processors and enabling businesses supports origination and execution, connecting investment decisions to commercial opportunities and financing needs along the chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Amazon Andes Fund aims to make forest-positive economic systems more economically viable and competitive than extractive alternatives across the Andean Amazon, improving livelihoods and economic resilience while reducing pressure on forests and regenerating degraded ecosystems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This translates into three outcomes: strengthened and consolidated sustainable Andean Amazon value chains, improved livelihoods and economic resilience, and reduced pressure on forests, alongside a crosscutting outcome of increased local value capture across sustainable value chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Andean Amazon doesn\u2019t lack good businesses, it lacks capital designed for how its forest economy actually works. The Lab gave us the rigor to move from seeing that gap to designing an instrument that closes it, with every structural choice tested against one question: does this keep forest standing and carbon in the ground?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Rick Kellett, Fund Principal<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Design<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amazon Andes Fund deploys flexible capital tailored to each company\u2019s business model and financing needs. The Fund provides debt for working capital and CAPEX, particularly to expand processing capacity, strengthen teams, and grow commercial operations. Early financing needs range from approximately USD 1M to USD 1.5M, with initial debt tickets ranging from USD 500,000 to USD 900,000, and equity and quasi-equity tickets from USD 250,000 to USD 500,000. Debt features a 1-year tenor for working capital and a 5-year tenor with a 6-month grace period for equipment finance, while equity investments target a 7 to 10-year holding period. The Fund targets growth-stage companies across midstream and downstream, forest-compatible value chains in the Andean Amazon sourcing from local producers. These include consolidated chains such as cacao and coffee, and emerging chains such as a\u00e7a\u00ed and Brazil nut, with strong value-add potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"458\" src=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/IMPAQTO-instrument-mechanics-01-1024x458.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-126127\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/IMPAQTO-instrument-mechanics-01-1024x458.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/IMPAQTO-instrument-mechanics-01-300x134.png 300w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/IMPAQTO-instrument-mechanics-01-1536x688.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/IMPAQTO-instrument-mechanics-01-2048x917.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pipeline<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Phase Zero study mapped 101 enterprises across Ecuador, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, establishing an initial cacao pipeline while identifying adjacent opportunities in coffee, Brazil nuts, guayusa and other products. Enterprises range from small, founder-funded businesses to established companies with external equity and international sales channels. AAF will deploy debt and strategic equity according to business maturity and cash flow needs, targeting processing, branding and market access opportunities that capture greater value downstream and strengthen sourcing relationships with producers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A USD 30 million private debt and equity vehicle deploying flexible capital to develop regenerative value chains that reduce deforestation and strengthen forest livelihoods in the Andean Amazon. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":185,"featured_media":126381,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"programs":[395],"regions":[1811],"topics":[],"collaborations":[],"class_list":["post-126377","cpi_publications","type-cpi_publications","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","programs-global-innovation-lab-for-climate-finance","regions-latin-america-and-the-caribbean"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin 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American Climate Resilient Coffee Facility (LATTE)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Overview<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Latin American Climate Resilience Coffee Facility (LATTE) developed by IDH Investment is a USD 30M senior debt (~70%) and junior first-loss (~30%) vehicle deploying junior debt and guarantees to scale resiliency financing for smallholder coffee farmers across Colombia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Innovation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up to 88% of coffee-growing areas in Latin America could become unsuitable by 2050 as rising temperatures and erratic rainfall reduce yields and push cultivation higher, threatening millions of smallholder families. Climate finance flows to smallholder agrifood systems remain far below what is needed, making up less than 1% of global climate finance. In Colombia alone, approximately 563,000 Arabica smallholders require this support, but high upfront costs and the absence of land titles or credit histories make adaptation finance a particular challenge for conventional lenders. This represents a ~USD 914M financing opportunity across target smallholder farms and high-priority adaptation practices, within a broader ~USD 2.5B resilience financing opportunity across all farms and practices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">LATTE addresses this through a systemic approach that coordinates capital, farmer incentives, and technical assistance across the value chain, aligning coffee brands, traders, and financial intermediaries around a shared, replicable model. It leverages IDH\u2019s positioning in the coffee sector, de-risking capital for local financial intermediaries so they can extend affordably priced credit to smallholders, while brand-funded incentive payments strengthen farmer cash flow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">LATTE aims to build a climate-resilient, low-carbon, and financially inclusive coffee sector in Latin America, delivering resilient farmer livelihoods and a secure, loweremission coffee supply. Over a five-year deployment, LATTE projects reaching 16,000 farmers with financing and technical assistance, bringing 22,400 hectares under climate-smart agriculture practices, deploying USD 28M in loan capital, avoiding or sequestering 187,000 tCO2e, and improving average yields by 17% versus baseline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These outcomes are expected to build a track record of improved farmer lending performance, encouraging corporates to sustain and expand incentive payments while helping establish coffee lending as a viable asset class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe Lab has been instrumental in accelerating the development of LATTE\u2019s financial mechanism and providing the technical rigor needed to transform an innovative model into an investor-ready blended finance proposition, with a clearly defined investment structure, risk-sharing approach, and pathway to mobilizing private capital.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Evgenia Sokolova, Program Director, IDH Invest.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Investment Strategy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">LATTE pre-designs specialized transition loans for financial intermediaries, including agri-fintechs, MFIs, and banks, to extend to smallholder coffee farmers, backed by LATTE\u2019s de-risking capital. LATTE provides junior\/subordinated debt and guarantees: envisioned junior debt amounts are USD 1-5M, and guarantees will make up less than 35% of the total loan book with an 8% annual fee. Financial intermediaries are selected based on geographic overlap with target brand supply sheds. The specialized transition loans finance short-term interventions such as low-carbon fertilizer and shade crop integration, medium-term interventions such as biochar, and long-term interventions such as agroforestry and farm renovation with resistant varieties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/LATTE-instrument-mechanics-01-1024x624.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-126133\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/LATTE-instrument-mechanics-01-1024x624.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/LATTE-instrument-mechanics-01-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/LATTE-instrument-mechanics-01-1536x937.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.climatepolicyinitiative.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/LATTE-instrument-mechanics-01-2048x1249.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pipeline<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More than 10 financial intermediaries have been identified and screened across Colombia\u2019s rural lending base, sourced through IDH\u2019s reVive Hub; six were interviewed in depth, with one already in an active pilot. Together, the interviewed intermediaries manage on the order of USD 40M+ in agricultural lending today. An illustrative LATTE pipeline of approximately USD 12M to 20M is already in active conversation or in pilot phase, reaching roughly 5,000 to 9,000 coffee farmers. Examples include Confiamos (MFI, Nari\u00f1o, active pilot), Agricapital (Fintech, national, advanced conversations), and Crezcamos (MFI, multi-region, preliminary conversations).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A USD 30 million financing facility that coordinates debt and guarantees to expand climate resilience financing for smallholder coffee farmers in Colombia, aligning stakeholders across the coffee value chain to mobilize investment in farm-level adaptation.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":185,"featured_media":126366,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"programs":[395],"regions":[1811],"topics":[],"collaborations":[],"class_list":["post-126365","cpi_publications","type-cpi_publications","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","programs-global-innovation-lab-for-climate-finance","regions-latin-america-and-the-caribbean"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 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